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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

For SNE, beyond Sunday/Monday, lots of back dooring but no big systems to work with. So it's your BN temps in early spring, with rain. Not pretty.

Subtle hope perhaps? 

This Friday look cool, but light SW wind around the return flow and temps rising at 850 through the day to near 0... may still tough 55 F at this time of year in that sort of look.  That's not bad - least for me heh. 

Also, once those piddling wave finish decaying underneath our latitude and that high settles off to the east the region is left in a kind of COL and +2 or +3 C at 850 and given sufficient sun, that's a solid spring like day there.   Plus, D10 has a Lake cutter and threatens to import a warm sector. 

Other than that, I'd say this run is over all slightly more tolerable than the GGEM/GFS blend .. ooph

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

For SNE, beyond Sunday/Monday, lots of back dooring but no big systems to work with. So it's your BN temps in early spring, with rain. Not pretty.

 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Same for NNE..lots of misery mist

Spread the misery far and wide.  It's only ok if everyone enjoys it.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Same for NNE..lots of misery mist

 
NNE has more of a northerly fetch rather than an easterly fetch on current guidance. It ultimately depends where the boundary sets up. If it makes it down to LI and SNE that's where your misery mist will set up. Right now guidance pushes the CF's well south, so the worst weather is further south into SNE and the northern mid Atlantic.
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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I dunno PF, this just looks like good snowboarding weather if you ask me. ^_^

Yeah it was more tongue-in-cheek as DIT just wanted to make sure NNE was included in the cold spring rain.  Sort of like when someone mentions a thaw is coming for SNE, he'll remind everyone its going all the way to Canada ;). 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll root for a cool and wet spring for multiple reasons. 

 

1) postpone azz sweat season as long as possible. 

2) plants and lawn. Heading into June on the wet side is a good thing.

3) for those with oaks, that promotes a fungus that helps control gypsy moths. 

I'll forego all those to decrease mosquito breeding and enjoy outdoor activities. 

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll root for a cool and wet spring for multiple reasons. 

 

1) postpone azz sweat season as long as possible. 

2) plants and lawn. Heading into June on the wet side is a good thing.

3) for those with oaks, that promotes a fungus that helps control gypsy moths. 

We want gypsy moths. So rooting for warm and drought

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16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We leave our friendly confines once in a while to do stuff besides sit on lawn chairs drinking beers.

My hood has lots of swampy land and we get destroyed by mosquitoes most years. Last summer was great from that regard.   Our house had a large deck on the back (in my profile pic) that was unusable much of the time due to mosquitoes.  We switched to a screened in porch last summer.  We ate 90% of our dinners back there.  

I divide summer into black fly - mosquito - and deer fly subseasons.  Hiking, biking, walking the dog, are all affected by these plagues 

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Most survive a big gypsy moth infestation.  We lost few in the early 1980s.  I'm sure Tamarack has stats showing how many board feet of lumber and $$$ were lost, but I think in most residential areas tree loss was low.

If you have the same tree virtually defoliated twice, it's likely to be a gonna. I think Tamarack mentioned that too. It puts them under a lot of stress. I think trees can take some defoliation, just not to the point where it's almost entirely eaten.

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54 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My hood has lots of swampy land and we get destroyed by mosquitoes most years. Last summer was great from that regard.   Our house had a large deck on the back (in my profile pic) that was unusable much of the time due to mosquitoes.  We switched to a screened in porch last summer.  We ate 90% of our dinners back there.  

I divide summer into black fly - mosquito - and deer fly subseasons.  Hiking, biking, walking the dog, are all affected by these plagues 

Not sure why anyone with a deck would not have it screened, besides the cost. It is the only way to go so good choice. Just grill in the backyard every night and eat dinner free of mosquitos. Pets and kids safe from the west nile. With that said, there is new tech on a deet free mosquito repellant that one can wear, it's basically a sticker, that supposedly will do the job for our outdoor activities. I saw the promo somewhere during the fall and the release date was scheduled for this spring. I'll have to see if I can find it. 

Ok, here it is:

http://www.kitepatch.com/kite-patch

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10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So what I'm seeing across the last several cycles of the operational GFS is varying themes inside a big fat one-eyed-monster rammed up the bum side of the spring enthusiasts...  Just a matter of how many inches.

Jeez Louise this 12z run ...right out to 384 hours may as well be 384 bullets eaten -

In any case, nice Miller B D10 there, huh - oh, no chance at verifying of course... But with a high of that magnitude and cold and newness over eastern Canada and nosing down that's probably blue snow in the interior there.   

Also, the overnight tele's now a little bit more committed to a +PNA.  The previous appeal had that more flat-lined.  Tough to say whether that is just spring variability or if it is real.. just sayn'

384 bullets eaten lmao

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7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not sure why anyone with a deck would not have it screened, besides the cost. It is the only way to go so good choice. Just grill in the backyard every night and eat dinner free of mosquitos. Pets and kids safe from the west nile. With that said, there is new tech on a deet free mosquito repellant that one can wear, it's basically a sticker, that supposedly will do the job for our outdoor activities. I saw the promo somewhere during the fall and the release date was scheduled for this spring. I'll have to see if I can find it. 

Ok, here it is:

http://www.kitepatch.com/kite-patch

But does it work on black flies?

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8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not sure why anyone with a deck would not have it screened, besides the cost. It is the only way to go so good choice. Just grill in the backyard every night and eat dinner free of mosquitos. Pets and kids safe from the west nile. With that said, there is new tech on a deet free mosquito repellant that one can wear, it's basically a sticker, that supposedly will do the job for our outdoor activities. I saw the promo somewhere during the fall and the release date was scheduled for this spring. I'll have to see if I can find it. 

Ok, here it is:

http://www.kitepatch.com/kite-patch

The bug patch. lol. It works...until it doesn't.  There will always be some rogue insect that gets someone in the back of the head or ankle.

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