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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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I certainly don't speak for others and what they are using ... but, a warm beginning to April has some support. 

Firstly, what constitutes a 'warm beginning' of that month.  Personally, I'm observing everywhere ...like all over the world actually, any patterns that 'look' normal relative to climatology more than merely seem to result in decimals above normal, most of the time.  It would seem the base-line state all over is in a state of positive flux.  Deriving any bets and gambles based on that, which is undeniable ... a 'normal' circulation look for us will likely result in +.01 to +1 F (or thereabouts).  

Unfortunately, that's not really 'mathed' to be honest. To be fair, that's just an observation. However, seeing as for about five years ...and probably going back all the way to the late 1990s, NASA has report warmer ballast favoring, over cooler anomalies, globally, the vast majority of times, a wise card reader doesn't take another hit at that Black Jack table.  

We'd have to mutually accept that relative to the positive flux, ...in other words, use the +.01 to + 1 F as the base-line when judging calls for warm Aprils. **Unless, the forecaster is factoring in the +.01 to + 1 F...

That course of obfuscation aside.. the PNA and NAO appear to be entering their typical spring stochastic, short duration spike fluctuation time of the year. These little, two to four day +PNA blips don't strike me as legit really... Those signals that matter more have more temporal weighting ... you know - you have a rise in the PNA for five days and it hold in mode change for  week..etc..etc.   The only domain space representing that sort of weightiness at this time is the EPO, which is demonstratively positive.  If one is basing a warm notion for April based upon that factor as being dominant, well... it theoretically appears to be the case right now.

Perhaps last night's computations vary that. We'll see..  I haven't seen those yet.  But, the CPC yesterday hold the AO and NAO positive, while any positive PNA is less than 1 SD ...heh.

This week looks trashed though.  I'm not sure anyone's going to win. No spring warmth that's meaningful.  And, yes I see the Euro but I could see that ending up over  QPFed, then moderating through 40 F with intervals of schit until a solid 10 days go by...  Yesterday I mentioned that the eastern U.S. was ripe for cyclogenesis in that time range ...and it still is.  However, the waves identifiable in the models are flat lining in the synoptic evolutions. The ridge in the S/SE is pressing N against the confluence in S-SE Canada, so I don't have much confidence that mechanics will overcome. 

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51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The storm is actually less shredded than yesterday's 12z run...so not sure what Kevin is talking about.

Holy crap, why is he constantly wrong when he gives his take on what the modeling shows???  I mean if it wasn't for you guys forever correcting him....???  But I do agree with him that the usual April weather usually sucks, and I'm not looking forward to that either.

 

I'm not thinking a whole lot of excitement for Sunday in most places of SNE...in fact I'd rather it just go away and be in the 50's(like yesterday...yesterday was a gorgeous day), but thats not looking to likely at this point either.  

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50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you sure? It looked like it came out in 2 or 3 s/w's. Certainly doesn't look like a strong system 

Yes, I'm sure. I never claimed it was a strong system, but it was actually more suppressed and strung out yesterday. 00z was actually more robust. I'd still put the odds of plowable snow pretty low out of this system for most of the forum though.

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32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Holy crap, why is he constantly wrong when he gives his take on what the modeling shows???  I mean if it wasn't for you guys forever correcting him....???  But I do agree with him that the usual April weather usually sucks, and I'm not looking forward to that either.

 

I'm not thinking a whole lot of excitement for Sunday in most places of SNE...in fact I'd rather it just go away and be in the 50's(like yesterday...yesterday was a gorgeous day), but thats not looking to likely at this point either.  

I wasn't wrong.. it's weak and strung out with light qpf. Ain't gonna cut it this time of year

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wasn't wrong.. it's weak and strung out with light qpf. Ain't gonna cut it this time of year

No it isn't going to cut it I agree.

 

But you were more enthused with it yesterday, and according to Will it looks better today.  That doesn't make a whole lot of sense when you think about it.  

 

But anyway, let's hope it misses, and we have a decent day.

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50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No it isn't going to cut it I agree.

 

But you were more enthused with it yesterday, and according to Will it looks better today.  That doesn't make a whole lot of sense when you think about it.  

 

But anyway, let's hope it misses, and we have a decent day.

Welcome to the forum sir. 

Just the other day I was told to leave my clubs in the trunk until mid April, but today...."we end". 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Welcome to the forum sir. 

Just the other day I was told to leave my clubs in the trunk until mid April, but today...."we end". 

Clubs in the trunk, ski's on the roof.  Which reminds me, I remember skiing Bretton Woods on May 1st one year, and then water skiing the Taunton River the next day.  Fun times. 

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3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Clubs in the trunk, ski's on the roof.  Which reminds me, I remember skiing Bretton Woods on May 1st one year, and then water skiing the Taunton River the next day.  Fun times. 

Thats the only way to live. Enjoying the outdoors.

When you water skied from Bretton down the ct river back to Brooklyn topless, I hope you had an adult beverage in hand.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weve been lucky down here recently in Aprils though. Last year not so much early on. I guess it is a different story up north in the heart of New England. 

You are probably in the one of the best spots in all of New England for good spring weather...very far southwest corner of New England.

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17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'm hopeful they are even worse and eat all the Oaks.. no cleanup in fall.. if it's a cold , wet spring that won't happen 

Be careful what you wish for.  The arborist bill for safely dumping all your hypothetically dead oaks would likely be many many times higher than hiring yard maintenance people to clear your lawn each fall.

Looks kind of meh for my part of the world, with something tonight for the far north and the weekend events probably staying south.  Given our snowfall and pack, that would not be nearly as painful as last April 4, when a possible nice ending to an awful winter was just a cloudy raw snowless day here.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are probably in the one of the best spots in all of New England for good spring weather...very far southwest corner of New England.

And then BTV would be right behind in the NW corner...and it's west of the Spine which is often the stratus barrier.  

BTV's downfall is the NW flow pattern in cool cyclonic flow that'll have it windy, raw and cold while the NW flow downslope areas are all beautiful.   Those become a lot less likely though as we go further into Spring.  

But BTV has so many barriers between it and the Atlantic that they really don't get any east flow misery at all.  Same with southern Quebec is a sneaky nice spring spot.  SW flow bringing the heat up north of the Whites and Greens in sunshine while the stratus hangs from Conway south.

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