HoarfrostHubb Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: North Peak chair and Chondola for the win Makes all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 That pretty much closes winter for wct, maybe some mangled flakes with this. Time to head north for riding and carving before it gets washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 3k NAM looks like a nice hit for SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 8 hours ago, jbenedet said: I'm wondering if the convective paramterization of the mesos has been giving the NAM and RGEM a distinct advantage as we work our way into spring. These large cut-off lows --one being the blizzard, and to a lesser extent this upcoming system--are also somewhat spring-like in nature (cut-off season). It's just a thought but this could help to explain the relative outperformance of the rgem and nam against the globals leading up to the blizzard. It will be interesting to see if the mesos win again here. Either way, I suspect they may have far more utility in this setup than we normally give them credit for. I posted this last night, and based on the trends it does seem again like the mesos are leading the way. I'd be interested to hear CTRain's and/or another met's thoughts on this and how it may or may not relate to the blizzard bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I posted this last night, and based on the trends it does seem again like the mesos are leading the way. I'd be interested to hear CTRain's and/or another met's thoughts on this and how it may or may not relate to the blizzard bust. It's still a little ways out, but perhaps this setup just plays into the model mechanics. I'm not sure you can compare this storm and the blizzard because the blizzard was on another level with s/w intricacies and convection. Perhaps the globals were too progressive and the higher res models being slower just had something closer to being correct. But again, there still could be shifts either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 I would certainly not sleep on this system unlessn it trends SE. Especially for entire E SNE and SE CT S RI SE MA and Cape in particular Nice potential here. 50 mile shift N would make things real interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Euro def looked decent for far eastern regions. Gets some good mid level goods back over them. NAM is even a little better. It would prob argue for a shift west in qpf field. We could really use another tick west though overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Love this setup. Watch for farther north and west verification. It's Morch, warm SST's. This has positive just written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Love this setup. Watch for farther north and west verification. It's Morch, warm SST's. This has positive just written all over it While it might come back further NW...the SSTs near us are pretty cold in March. They are usually warmer in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: While it might come back further NW...the SSTs near us are pretty cold in March. They are usually warmer in December. They are the coldest to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro def looked decent for far eastern regions. Gets some good mid level goods back over them. NAM is even a little better. It would prob argue for a shift west in qpf field. We could really use another tick west though overall. RGEM is a huge hit for WPSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: While it might come back further NW...the SSTs near us are pretty cold in March. They are usually warmer in December. I just meant as compared to what they normally should be in Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 I've never seen a 72 hour RGEM output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Little critters that bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I've never seen a 72 hour RGEM output. It goes to hr 84 now. You have to dink around with the URL to get those images I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: RGEM is a huge hit for WPSE Now shift that west about 30 miles. If it's got to be cold in Morch, I want to see some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 RPM is kind of going wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RPM is kind of going wild. Unhinged. Like 12"+ for a big area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Unhinged. Like 12"+ for a big area. It's celebrating St patty's day already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Unhinged. Like 12"+ for a big area. It ain't gonna take much for this to be siggy for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Some of these would do much to mollify the folks that got rained on on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, metagraphica said: Now shift that west about 30 miles. If it's got to be cold in Morch, I want to see some decent snow. Taken literally that's like 6 to 8 as is for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's still a little ways out, but perhaps this setup just plays into the model mechanics. I'm not sure you can compare this storm and the blizzard because the blizzard was on another level with s/w intricacies and convection. Perhaps the globals were too progressive and the higher res models being slower just had something closer to being correct. But again, there still could be shifts either way. Thanks for your response. I agree, verification for this is still not set in stone; I'm just noting the trend that so far they are winning... Synoptically speaking this event certainly isn't a strong analog--definitely not an apples to apples comparison--but I suppose I'm trying to isolate the common variable in this case, which is the robust 500 mb low occlusion near the Great Lakes. To me--again this is another hypothesis-- in the case of the blizzard bust I think the mesos keying in on the deepest convection and how that related to the location of best surface pressure falls is what allowed them to see the track closer to the coast. This is particularly important when H5 and H7 became cut off --losing baroclinity--and the atmosphere transitioned quickly to a quasi equivalent barotropic state. At that point perhaps convective drivers trumped UL synoptic features? There's obviously a lot more to this (e.g phasing) I just find it fascinating. In a perfect world Mother Nature would provide us with several more cases before this season is out to test and/or fine tune this hypothesis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Can we get a little love to the west.. Still hope but if theres not a shift at 12z we're out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I've never seen a 72 hour RGEM output. Learn somethings, always been hidden , remember when we had to change the url on CMC crappy GGEM black and white maps to get to 240, it hasn't changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Learn somethings, always been hidden , remember when we had to change the url on CMC crappy GGEM black and white maps to get to 240, it hasn't changed Yes I remember. Old school. Not sure I wanted to know where to find a 72 hour RGEM. Lol. It's probably about as accurate as the 72 hour NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes I remember. Old school. Not sure I wanted to know where to find a 72 hour RGEM. Lol. It's probably about as accurate as the 72 hour NAM. Probably lol , I find these tight close miss / hits the most fun to analyze and try to predict. I mean this is one of those where you could be standing on a beach in SRI watching near blizzard conditions on BID or in the same. Tight rope job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Unhinged. Like 12"+ for a big area. Can you post or link to where to view that... having trouble finding it on mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Can you post or link to where to view that... having trouble finding it on mobile It's on a pay vendor site...so it would be password protected. I look at the WSI one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Taken literally that's like 6 to 8 as is for you Yeah, just feeling greedy today. Want to add something decent on top of 2" of cement left over from the "blizzard". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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