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Model Mayhem VII

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Love it Pike south !

 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

See ya later. Oh well. Sucks.

 

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GFS is not what we wanted to see.

 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only looks decent for the Cape on this run.

I think I'll go with the big boy models and toss the srefs.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter is teetering...some close-to-melting posts in here. Might have missed the final good snow of the season while eating brisket in Dallas.

I'd like to take advantage of a -5 month.  It will be another month of Ginxy posting 850 RAOB records above his bed.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

GGEM looks worse too...and both GGEM and GFS are because of more interaction with the ULL to the northeast. Exactly the thing we did not want to see. We want more spacing between those two....if the ULL was a bit closer by, then you could try and phase it stronger and probably produce a good event, but it's that awkward distance where that isn't really going to happen and it just ends up mucking up the storm.

NAM trended the right way, but I believe the global trend over the post-48 hour NAM.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a fine line between mid level magic, and bull$hit.

Meh...  I would hope folks are not 'disappointed' If so, it is because they may not be 'listening to the reasons' in the first place, that (I and probably others) are pointing out about this thing. 

Otherwise, these solutions would NOT disappoint, merely be expected.  

Unless ...folks are just hoping? or something - if so... if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. 

Now to sound like a hypocritical d-bag:  the NAM solution in total rattles around a CCB that misses by a PH.  It's interesting .. because that evolution has 0 margin for error there; if that ever got on shore it would be a 33 F low visibility 'chute fest.  Of course the NAM of old used to have a pretty obvious NW bias beyond 60 hours with W. Atlantic lows  ... maybe that's all this is.   

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM looks worse too...and both GGEM and GFS are because of more interaction with the ULL to the northeast. Exactly the thing we did not want to see. We want more spacing between those two....if the ULL was a bit closer by, then you could try and phase it stronger and probably produce a good event, but it's that awkward distance where that isn't really going to happen and it just ends up mucking up the storm.

NAM trended the right way, but I believe the global trend over the post-48 hour NAM.

Will - did you post your thoughts on the blizzard bust anywhere? Curious your thoughts on the NAM/RGEM vs the globals. The mesoscale models have managed a few coups of late. Seems like all of us struggle with the transition from the global models to mesoscale models in the ~24 hour window before an event begins. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to take advantage of a -5 month.  It will be another month of Ginxy posting 850 RAOB records above his bed.

Hope next weekend isn't a cutter...might be our last chance...at least widespread. Interior prob will have another one at some point.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM looks worse too...and both GGEM and GFS are because of more interaction with the ULL to the northeast. Exactly the thing we did not want to see. We want more spacing between those two....if the ULL was a bit closer by, then you could try and phase it stronger and probably produce a good event, but it's that awkward distance where that isn't really going to happen and it just ends up mucking up the storm.

NAM trended the right way, but I believe the global trend over the post-48 hour NAM.

yeah, I'm inclined to agree ... As this has been relaying off the Pacific up there we've seen this morph/transition into more a nuisance scenario.  Some of that is because the wave strength is mechanically not sufficient to slow the field down by carving out a lower latitude at every point as it arrives, leaving it up to (as you noticed) some interaction with the lingering/recent trough exit up there in eastern Canada. 

there's time for other events... Next week may still be interesting... if this one doesn't miracle first :) 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter is teetering...some close-to-melting posts in here. Might have missed the final good snow of the season while eating brisket in Dallas.

If it were my brisket, which is basically my grandma's brisket, it would be worth it.   Jerry would understand.  I love that Scott melts from time to time, it purges one.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Will - did you post your thoughts on the blizzard bust anywhere? Curious your thoughts on the NAM/RGEM vs the globals. The mesoscale models have managed a few coups of late. Seems like all of us struggle with the transition from the global models to mesoscale models in the ~24 hour window before an event begins. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49832-the-blizzard-of-the-ides-2017-observation-time/?do=findComment&comment=4526148

 

I made a couple posts starting there, the next one was on the next page I believe.

 

The models seemed to struggle with the convection in this past storm. There was a lot of it...like tons of it actually. Way more than usual. I always hate trying to pick models when there's an anomalous amount of convection because sometimes it is hard to parse between reality and convective fantasy on the models. I do think you have to weight the non-hydrostatic models a little more than usual in those storms. I think the RGEM being really far west was a definite flag...esp when it didn't come eastward once it got to like 30-36 hours...it kept going west actually until it finally overtrended a smidge (took low over BOS) and then ticked back slightly east to near the final track just SE of BOS-PVD line. RGEM doesn't have a huge bias of over-amping storms like the NAM or even the Ukie sometimes does...and the Ukie had a very west track too. So to me, the RGEM was pretty key. Some of those models were a little too warm up this way...not much mixing ever happened beyond 128 and N of pike...but everything else was pretty accurate. They actually might not have been warm enough down near NYC where the warm tongue was really strong.

 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Will - did you post your thoughts on the blizzard bust anywhere? Curious your thoughts on the NAM/RGEM vs the globals. The mesoscale models have managed a few coups of late. Seems like all of us struggle with the transition from the global models to mesoscale models in the ~24 hour window before an event begins. 

rgem choked with tue iny my hood but it had the right idea long with the nammy and ncar? something OceanWx posted which had the 18+ amounts nw of wct. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

rgem choked with tue too but it had the right idea long with the nammy and ncar? something OceanWx posted which had the 18+ amounts nw of wct. 

NCAR ensemble did OK but was still too high on the southern flank with snow totals.

Biggest issue I believe was the fact our SLR were so abysmal... super dense/small snowfalkes with a dried out SGZ. 6.4:1 here in my backyard. Man snow. 

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

NCAR ensemble did OK but was still too high on the southern flank with snow totals.

Biggest issue I believe was the fact our SLR were so abysmal... super dense/small snowfalkes with a dried out SGZ. 6.4:1 here in my backyard. Man snow. 

wow, I bet mine was around that too....so at 10-1 or so most of the models would have been right on with accums

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49832-the-blizzard-of-the-ides-2017-observation-time/?do=findComment&comment=4526148

 

I made a couple posts starting there, the next one was on the next page I believe.

 

The models seemed to struggle with the convection in this past storm. There was a lot of it...like tons of it actually. Way more than usual. I always hate trying to pick models when there's an anomalous amount of convection because sometimes it is hard to parse between reality and convective fantasy on the models. I do think you have to weight the non-hydrostatic models a little more than usual in those storms. I think the RGEM being really far west was a definite flag...esp when it didn't come eastward once it got to like 30-36 hours...it kept going west actually until it finally overtrended a smidge (took low over BOS) and then ticked back slightly east to near the final track just SE of BOS-PVD line. RGEM doesn't have a huge bias of over-amping storms like the NAM or even the Ukie sometimes does...and the Ukie had a very west track too. So to me, the RGEM was pretty key. Some of those models were a little too warm up this way...not much mixing ever happened beyond 128 and N of pike...but everything else was pretty accurate. They actually might not have been warm enough down near NYC where the warm tongue was really strong.

 

I turned to rain for a few hours, and so did Dracut.

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