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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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EPS definitely has the mean 500 mb low farther north than the op, which is good. There is also a cluster of members with surface lows near the Cape. So that tells me there is a background pattern in a good chunk of the members that is leading to a farther north system. 

Think of it as phase two of the sensitivity analysis. Cluster groups of ensemble members together, then figure out what pattern leads to those clusters. Then you can really figure out what a tweak to the western ridge, or deeper shortwave might do to the operational runs.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

The Euro is really nice mid level magic type of evolution. It just happens too far east on this run.

Yeah it looks like BOS actually might be in a good spot on the OP euro. But the meat looks just to the east. This one has some potential. 

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20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This is the time of year that regardless of the temp, the sun will feel warm and the snows will still be melting on the roads.

Just did the final cleanup from yesterday. Temp is now 14F but with no wind it was fine.

winter won't die, despite some struggles.   It looks like this weekend is SE SNE bound...TAN, Foxborough, Brockton type o deal 

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13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just did the final cleanup from yesterday. Temp is now 14F but with no wind it was fine.

winter won't die, despite some struggles.   It looks like this weekend is SE SNE bound...TAN, Foxborough, Brockton type o deal 

Nope..it's for everyone. Pattern ripe for the NW move..as our eyes get bigger each successive run and it comes NW

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5 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

EPS definitely has the mean 500 mb low farther north than the op, which is good. There is also a cluster of members with surface lows near the Cape. So that tells me there is a background pattern in a good chunk of the members that is leading to a farther north system. 

Think of it as phase two of the sensitivity analysis. Cluster groups of ensemble members together, then figure out what pattern leads to those clusters. Then you can really figure out what a tweak to the western ridge, or deeper shortwave might do to the operational runs.

I agree with you on the mid level evolution (500 H) in principle.

I'm a little skeptical about the lower baroclinic tapestry for that weekend thing. 

To schools with that: 

-- The diabatic tsunamis has kicked in; March is a big differential month for that.  We can get away with a fetid polar air mass much easier on March 1 than we can the same air mass being assaulted by daily hemispheric insolation uptake at the end of the month.  That's true in February and April, too...but, March has the greatest difference from D1 to 31... Anyway, obviously you know this but my point is, I could see a light/moderate varying intensity fall rates we end up with light rain and parachutes do to decent mid level power spinning over top a diffused lower level baroclinicity...   It's one reason why early April 500 mb evolutions can look so delicious but then you look at the attending surface charts and you only have vague closures and ho-hum drabby weather. It's a timing game... where the cold needs to be fresh. It "looks" like we may not have that for this next ordeal.

-- This system is also not benefiting from a southern stream moisture advection.  If the baroclinic gradients end up week... lacking moisture limit things.  Again ... favors chilly rain and 'chutes, .. elevations may do better though -

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