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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


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Just now, moneypitmike said:

My sister in Brooklyn just posted that it's a bust.

 

Heavy snow here....waves of it lowing in the wind.  Time to rock, I guess.

Trying to decide whether the 18-24 inch forecast from yesterday is more embarrassing than the 24-36 inch forecast from 1/25/2015. OKX has not had any luck with big snow forecasts. When they go high, we go low.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance has been pretty consistent at sending taint to a lot of people by 20-21z. It's what happens between now and then that matters. That's where the 12-15" in 6 hours is coming from. 

the problem in my opinion is not that the heavy rates won't be there but that guidance is notoriously slow in bringing in Warm air aloft. When every hour is 3" of snow and we know forecasts are too slow to bring in warm air aloft and with the ground truth to the South west,  its time to take em down by at LEAST 1/3, no?

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

the problem in my opinion is not that the heavy rates won't be there but that guidance is notoriously slow in bringing in Warm air aloft. When every hour is 3" of snow and we know forecasts are too slow to bring in warm air aloft and with the ground truth to the South west,  its time to take em down by at LEAST 1/3, no?

Take it down by 1-3"? I dunno if I'm that confident that mixing will happen in ORH at 19z vs 21z...are you? I'd keep my range fairly wide....like 10-16" or something. That should cover a 2 hour wiggle room for mixing. 

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5 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Those who stay all snow are going to get pummeled. Going by the thermal profiles most of the three SNE states will flip (save NW corner of MA)
It's just the way it is. Sleet fest incoming.

No way it makes it that far hartford south probably maybe to springfield at the very end but they do great before that

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So are mets thinking the Euro is too cold?

Did anyone ever say what the euro had for H7 temps? It wasn't talked about really since this isn't a SWFE, but with a monster WCB it's a similar deal with the warm tongue way aloft.

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4 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Trying to decide whether the 18-24 inch forecast from yesterday is more embarrassing than the 24-36 inch forecast from 1/25/2015. OKX has not had any luck with big snow forecasts. When they go high, we go low.

 

They consistently get burned for being too bullish on snow. In last night's disco they cited the GEFS as a reason to keep everyone all snow. Sometimes, it's hard to buy what OKX wants to sell you.

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Um wow it's pure whiteout conditions, Upton drops the bliz warning and I immediately start seeing blizzard conditions. lol

Because you're unlikely to see it for 3 or more consecutive hours. Getting some decent flake production here now, but it's about 50/50 snow and sleet.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Did anyone ever say what the euro had for H7 temps? It wasn't talked about really since this isn't a SWFE, but with a monster WCB it's a similar deal with the warm to gue way aloft.

I saw an early AM met post that had Euro keeping even HVN snow .. I forget what he said thermals were , but it was borderline there

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

It's pretty ridiculous outside right now crazy winds heavy snow looks like at least 2-3 per hour, whiteout conditions. Approaching 6". Be very very lucky if we see a foot here.

Did you have any sleet when the heavy band first came in? I'm just to your south in North Branford (12 miles from water). Sleet mixed in on approach of band, all snow now.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Did anyone ever say what the euro had for H7 temps? It wasn't talked about really since this isn't a SWFE, but with a monster WCB it's a similar deal with the warm tongue way aloft.

At 18z it has the -4 isotherm over the pike. -2 over TOL but 0c is still offshore to the south. Looks like by 00z it gets the cape and maybe even scooters digs. 

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