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March 13/14 Storm Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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19 minutes ago, das said:

It's made worse that the wife checked the forecast for the 2nd house we just bought and will retire to one day to see the blizzard warning hoisted:

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 1pm. High near 25. Blustery, with a north wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 16. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 18 to 23 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow. Areas of blowing snow before 10am. High near 26. Northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Northwest wind around 14 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

Ha, I was just doing the same thing looking at the point & click for our house in Deep Creek.  Another 8-16" forecast there over the next few days.  Should have stayed there this week!

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Anyone who got 4+" of concrete out of this shouldn't complain. It was a complex storm and we dont do complex well, which I belieeve Ian trademarked. I had a bad feeling after the Maryland loss and the models that night we were gonna be on the low end. 

Edit: Not to mention the concrete isn't going anywhere for the next couple days. 

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It looks like there are a lot of upset people today but I find it hard to be upset about this event. I've got solid 3-3.5" of ice-crete everywhere outside, everything is white, work is canceled, schools are shut down, it's pretty, and I got my first winter storm warning. This was actually really fun to track and I always maintained that as long as I got 3", I'm happy - up until this point I couldn't even get snow to cover the grass.

Looks like it's done for me now but anyway, this was fun to track with all of you.

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1 hour ago, das said:

To anyone considering pursuing a degree in meteorology, try to consider ALL of the implications, good and bad.  My name is mud here at Casa de das this morning.

Even better--Just forecast away from the I-95 corridor and you'll be fine...haha It is indeed the fall line: the spot where winter weather forecasts fall at least 40-50% of the time!

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30 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It looks like there are a lot of upset people today but I find it hard to be upset about this event. I've got solid 3-3.5" of ice-crete everywhere outside, everything is white, work is canceled, schools are shut down, it's pretty, and I got my first winter storm warning. This was actually really fun to track and I always maintained that as long as I got 3", I'm happy - up until this point I couldn't even get snow to cover the grass.

Looks like it's done for me now but anyway, this was fun to track with all of you.

Glad to have you with us.  Don't worry.  Even if this year was a dud, which can happen, over any two or three year period you are going to get to experience some "real" winter weather.

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That's ridiculous.  Let's pick out one of its 10 solutions and call it the winner.

And those maps aren't close, at least on the edges.

I know it is a marketing statement and Ryan likes very much the Euro model but that statement is way off IMHO. 

It would be one thing had the snow fallen and then melted, but for many that did not happen , at least not in the densely populated regions of Philly, Wilmington, NYC, Baltimore, DC, etc. 

The forecasts in these regions hold a high impact for both snow removal, logistics, planning and the public,  who as we all know go balistic if the forecast of snow is even off an inch. But hey it is the weather, it is dynamic and changing , expecting high accuracy in this situation was never going to happen. 

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43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That's ridiculous.  Let's pick out one of its 10 solutions and call it the winner.

And those maps aren't close, at least on the edges.

Agreed.  If anything, dare I say, the maligned NAM started hinting at the obscene warm air intrusion first.

Meh, this storm kinda sucked for me, but I knew that was a possibility going in and I'm ok.  It's gotta hurt worse tho for those up north.  We live, we learn...and we'll all do it again.  

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Agreed.  If anything, dare I say, the maligned NAM started hinting at the obscene warm air intrusion first.

Meh, this storm kinda sucked for me, but I knew that was a possibility going in and I'm ok.  It's gotta hurt worse tho for those up north.  We live, we learn...and we'll all do it again.  

I kinda liked it.  I got a few jebwalks in with my dog while it was dumping last night and surface temps staying below freezing was a nice surprise. 

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I kinda liked it.  I got a few jebwalks in with my dog while it was dumping last night and surface temps staying below freezing was a nice surprise. 

It was fun until about 1am.   I was out in it, enjoying that part.   Hey, at least we doubled our snow totals for the year.  

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To anyone considering pursuing a degree in meteorology, try to consider ALL of the implications, good and bad.  My name is mud here at Casa de das this morning.



I woke up to 12 texts by my sister NW of Philly SE of Allentown. She wasn't exactly thrilled to see a lot of sleet that she has to shovel instead of snow lol. Definitely a storm that was tough to forecast. This crap was rough to shovel.


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Just came in from plowing the neighborhood for 4 hours on my Kubota (see avatar).  God this crud is sooooo heavy.  Like concrete.  I hope not, but am afraid there's gonna be some folks who push it too far today and have health issues, especially the elderly. 

In the 4 hours I was out the road conditions changed dramatically - just wet now in our area NW of Vienna.  And, as soon as you get a patch of driveway cleared down to the asphalt, the solar radiation starts doing its thing.  Our driveway is just wet now too.  Would be nice if some of the projected back end materializes this afternoon, but not holding my breath. 

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My gut feeling for several days was low amounts and mix for DC and points east. I never thought I would have a changeover in Ashburn at 1 am. Not only to sleet but freezing rain as well. Freezing rain is so rare climatologically in this area for Mid March let alone out here in Ashburn during a coastal storm. Sleet all the way though the Mason Dixon line equally shocking. I was expecting at least 8" of snow here and wound up with 2-3" of sleet/snow/ice slop. A colleague in Frederick county MD who lives near the MARC train POR station did receive 9.5" but well north and west. Snow forecasting can really humble  us all. 

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It was very surprising how far north and west that sleet got. I got an inch of pure sleet, mixed well with ZR, on top of very wet snow. It was a joy to shovel today too, especially after that plow shoved a three foot berm of sleet onto my driveway. I bet some ppl got three inches of sleet

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My 12 year old son headed out at 9AM looking for shoveling work. He just walked in red faced and tired with $115 in his hand. Proud dad right here. Reminds me of my youth. I would shovel until my arms wanted to fall off then immediately blow all the money I made at the arcade and pizza shop. lol 

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