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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

2,321 posts in this topic

Some of our DOT cams are showing snow trying to mix back in up county (Barnesville, Hyattstown, Damascus).  Not sure if anyone from the board that lives there is on right now...a ground truth report would be beneficial.  

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I went for a short jebwalk. Raw cold rain is falling, but there is a lot of ice too. This rain is freezing on stuff. I have a quarter inch of ice on my car. There is 1 to 2 inches of sleet on roads, topped by ice. many objects are encased in ice. Its 28 degrees and ZR is still falling.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some of our DOT cams are showing snow trying to mix back in up county (Barnesville, Hyattstown, Damascus).  Not sure if anyone from the board that lives there is on right now...a ground truth report would be beneficial.  

100% sleet here in Frederick

http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxstate_cc.php

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4 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

For the talk of ZR I don't see any glaze and it looks like 100%sleet to me. I have about 3" of snow/sleet right now.

Maybe it was from earlier as the snow melted on cars and trees initially it created little drops of water that froze as it got colder 

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12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Yeah - feb 2007 was what I was referencing that those who have lived here longer always cite. I don't know if this is like that for this area, but it's a lot of sleet at this point. 

I think that system was one of the top analogs for this storm actually...

IF the HRRR is right and that is a big if. The heavy rates that it keeps popping up for you in the coming hours would hopefully mean a much quicker flip over as that would be better able to overcome any warm layer. At this point it looks that what is holding you back are the 850's that are at +1 for a duration. So I would think you are definitely in the game if the models are just off a bit in that regards.

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I remeasured and got an average of about 2.75... 4" has probably fallen. If we do pull off a fluffy inch or two later, its gonna be a weird snowpack.

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Well I was above freezing for about an hour but now I'm right at or just below freezing again because the rain is now back to freezing rain and the melting has stopped.  Hopefully that's a sign of things to come and we will see some snow within the next couple of hours. 

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WPC discussion:

 

 

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN NC... WHICH IS WELL WEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE FROM 24 HRS AGO AND REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE 00Z CYCLE OF MODELS. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL TRACK OF THE STORM MEANS A TREMENDOUS ATLANTIC SURGE OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR AND MAJOR PTYPE VARITIES OVER THE MID-ATL REGION. THUS TREMENDOUS WIDESPREAD BRIGHT BANDING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR TRANSITIONING THE EVENT NEAR THE DELMARVA FROM A SNOW EVENT TO MORE OF A SLEET STORM WITH SNOW FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH AND WEST. THUS AS THE INTENSIFYING LOW DRIVES UP THE COAST... HOW WILL THIS IMPACT THE REST OF I95 CORRIDOR FROM PHL TO BOS. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SHIFTING TOWARDS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND A BRUSH FOR THE MAJOR MARKETS.


 

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0292
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017

   Areas affected...Northern portions of VA/MD...eastern PA...northern
   NJ...southern NY into southern New England

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 140722Z - 141215Z

   SUMMARY...Increasingly heavy snow will develop north/northeastward
   through the early/mid morning hours. Snow rates in excess of 1-2
   in/hr will become increasingly common, with some embedded higher
   rates likely, especially toward sunrise and beyond across
   eastern/south-central PA, northern NJ, and much of southern NY and
   nearby CT/MA.

   DISCUSSION...A gradual phasing of dual upstream shortwave troughs
   will occur today while pronounced upward vertical motion spreads
   generally northeastward across the region this morning in concert
   with an increasingly coupled upper jet structure and a near-coastal
   warm conveyor. Latest surface analysis features around a 1000 mb
   surface low near the northeast NC coast as of 07Z (3AM EDT). To the
   north, considerable pressure falls of 4-5 mb/2 hours are maximized
   roughly along the I-95 corridor and immediate coast of the
   mid-Atlantic/Northeast, which is observationally consistent with he
   intense cyclogenesis expected over the next 6-12 hours (and beyond)
   northward along the coast. 

   As cyclogenesis continues to occur, observations/short-term guidance
   are suggestive that the surface wet-bulb zero line will continue to
   slowly transition northward across parts of DE/NJ toward the NYC
   metro. This is suggestive of a more transitional/mixed precipitation
   type along the I-95 corridor. A longer duration of
   heavy-snow-optimal profiles, attributable to increasing lift
   coincident with a deep/saturated dendritic layer, are expected just
   west/northwest of the I-95 corridor from northern parts of VA and MD
   into south-central/eastern PA, northern NJ, much of southern NY, and
   eventually nearby CT/MA through 12-15Z.  

   Lift/saturation aside, consistent with earlier 00Z observed
   soundings from Washington-Dulles and Wallops Island VA, various
   short-term forecast soundings suggest that very weak elevated
   buoyancy will continue to exist along the coast as mid-level lapse
   rates continue to steepen over the mid-Atlantic region. In the
   presence of increasing mid-level frontogenetical forcing, this is
   likely to contribute to increasingly organized/intense bands of snow
   and enhanced snowfall rates through the mid-morning hours, including
   some possibility for a few localized instances of thundersnow.

MD.gif

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4 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

WPC discussion:

 

 

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN NC... WHICH IS WELL WEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE FROM 24 HRS AGO AND REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE 00Z CYCLE OF MODELS. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL TRACK OF THE STORM MEANS A TREMENDOUS ATLANTIC SURGE OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR AND MAJOR PTYPE VARITIES OVER THE MID-ATL REGION. THUS TREMENDOUS WIDESPREAD BRIGHT BANDING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR TRANSITIONING THE EVENT NEAR THE DELMARVA FROM A SNOW EVENT TO MORE OF A SLEET STORM WITH SNOW FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH AND WEST. THUS AS THE INTENSIFYING LOW DRIVES UP THE COAST... HOW WILL THIS IMPACT THE REST OF I95 CORRIDOR FROM PHL TO BOS. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SHIFTING TOWARDS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND A BRUSH FOR THE MAJOR MARKETS.



 

Damn, that's such a gut punch for PHL, NYC and maybe BOS.   We kinda knew to expect it here, they didn't.   I still think NYC may come out better tho

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn, that's such a gut punch for PHL, NYC and maybe BOS.   We kinda knew to expect it here, they didn't.   I still think NYC may come out better tho

Ouch, that's rough. I thought the low was a bit deeper and east of the models at this point but what do I know. 

Radar still looks good over the metro area (for sleet) but I'm a bit worried about a little drying showing up to our west on radarscope. 

Going out for a long walk. 31/31

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