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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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Things are winding down over here. Currently 33 and light flurries and the sun is showing up. 

Just cleaned the driveway in record time. It is a heavy wet snow so glad we did not make projected amounts. I officially measured 6.75". We actually started to shed our warm clothing as we worked up a sweat.

The sun angle is already starting to take its toll. I suspect that by the end of the day our solar panels will be mostly cleared off due to them heating up.

Kids are already out, great snow for hard snowballs and snowmen. And for this girl from NW Ohio, totally driveable. Not that I need to go out by my husband jokingly asked me if I needed to go do donuts.

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1 minute ago, mdhokie said:

First year at our new house and we actually have a sledding hill now. Kids were out early! Approaching 6" here in Ellicott City.

 

IMG_20170314_091255821_TOP.jpg

Nice pic!  Your house looks really familiar.  I think I've driven by it before.  Might have been for sale when we were looking in 2015?

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24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Seriously?  I can't believe that.  I have gone technology free since it started but totally expected big snow reports out of your area.

Damn shame.  I feel bad for a lot of folks in our area.  Hopefully everyone found some enjoyment in this.

Seriously. I was very surprised when I woke at 6 to the sound of heavy sleet. Warm nose parked its ass overhead 

 

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Adding onto another post above -- for me this was just a gut punch especially after a horrible winter.  I just wish the models/forecasts had looked like a mixed to rain scenario with an inch or two and we over-performed with the general 2-5" amounts.

These obs really stick out, esp the one just three miles from Frederick:

3 NW FREDERICK        10.0   800 AM  3/14  NWS EMPLOYEE
MIDDLETOWN             8.0   755 AM  3/14  BROADCAST MEDIA
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11 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

This storm is a good example of why looking at soundings is more important than looking at snow maps. 

Amen.

I was pleasantly surprised how well we did here in Crofton with the in-situ CAD, as we stayed below freezing all night. That was a surprise given that the forecast wet bulbs were around 33F. Thus the freezing rain... Also a surprise. 1.5" of snow+sleet along with a little more than 1/8" ice here in Crofton. 

The warming aloft is something we all worried about. I mean, seriously, 50-60 kts of easterly 900-800 mb flow is gonna cause problems most times, even west of 95. There are certainly outlier events, like the 4-6" of snow the other year on South winds with an Arctic high moving off the mid Atlantic coast. But this is March. Again though, the fzra was totally not climo.

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3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Adding onto another post above -- for me this was just a gut punch especially after a horrible winter.  I just wish the models/forecasts had looked like a mixed to rain scenario with an inch or two and we over-performed with the general 2-5" amounts.

These obs really stick out, esp the one just three miles from Frederick:


3 NW FREDERICK        10.0   800 AM  3/14  NWS EMPLOYEE
MIDDLETOWN             8.0   755 AM  3/14  BROADCAST MEDIA

The days of model runs promising area-wide double digits is a huge part of it too. There was a period of time where a run showing 6-10" over the area was considered a dud. I'm pretty sure most everyone here would consider that an epic win now.

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