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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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The high could have been stronger and in a better spot, but it wasn't the problem. Most everyone around and west of 95 was well below freezing. The northern stream being so far NW and the coastal low basically going right over Ocean City was the problem. Move the low 100 miles east and you probably could have done pretty well. HRRR probably overdid precip a bit and definitely overdid the cold air. NAM was really jumpy leading up to event but pretty much nailed the final outcome.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

The high could have been stronger and in a better spot, but it wasn't the problem. Most everyone around and west of 95 was well below freezing. The northern stream being so far NW and the coastal low basically going right over Ocean City was the problem. Move the low 100 miles east and you probably could have done pretty well. HRRR probably overdid precip a bit and definitely overdid the cold air. NAM was really jumpy leading up to event but pretty much nailed the final outcome.

The high would have cooled the upper levels much more.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

The high could have been stronger and in a better spot, but it wasn't the problem. Most everyone around and west of 95 was well below freezing. The northern stream being so far NW and the coastal low basically going right over Ocean City was the problem. Move the low 100 miles east and you probably could have done pretty well. HRRR probably overdid precip a bit and definitely overdid the cold air. NAM was really jumpy leading up to event but pretty much nailed the final outcome.

The NAM was horrid IMO. It gave me 1.6 and 1.5 inches of QPF in the last 2 runs before the storm. The HRRR will end up just about nailing my QPF numbers which is gonna be around .8

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I know the HRRR hasn't been fantastic but has anyone noticed it's setting up a significant back end thump?

It also seems like it wants to dump another 12-18 up by York. That seems highly unlikely. Storm is pulling out pretty quick in my eyes.

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After a week of watching and waiting, in the end, the models did a horrible job with this storm.  We got about 2 inches of snow before it changed over around midnight.  It is starting to change to very light snow again in Fairfax County (near the city).  Can anyone tell me if we are likely to get any more from the coastal low as it pulls north?  I read the NWS, but it doesn't look very good on radar.  I'm concerned that it is too far north to get west of DC.  

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1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

Looking at radar it's pretty clear to me it's setting up much further north and east that depicted on those models.. I suppose I could be wrong..

I don't think you're wrong. 95 and east may be the best spot with the band. 

 

 

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Went out to take some pictures. The gate was frozen shut. Cut my finger trying to get it open. Went I went out the roads were slushy and wet. The slush is starting to freeze now. All sleet is now falling and is accumulating on the local plowed roads. Some branches/limbs are breaking under the ice. Temperature has dropped to 31.7. 

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Light flurries in Germantown, but radar is collapsing and the sky is brightening with the lumpiness of the clouds visible.  This one is over.  Gonna say about 3.5-ish on the ground, which given the 8-12" for my zone as of yesterday afternoon is a total failure.  It is the cherry on top of the crap sundae that this winter was.

 

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