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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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4 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

I see some pages that I follow(Justin berk and another) saying the warm bay is why there's so much sleet.. any validity to that statement? 

Not sure how much of a role it is playing. The low is too far west allowing warmer air to be pulled in up at the 800-850 levels, thus sleet. Need the low to move east for cold air to rush back in at all levels and the change back to snow to happen. 

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I think so much sleet is because the track of the low is even further west than expected.  I went over to the Philly and NYC forums to see what's going on - they have flipped to sleet all the way into Allentown and NYC, and they think only places well inland are safe.  One poster said the low is coming up to the left of Wallops Island; another said TV mets are saying only 6-12" for NYC.

Sleet in Germantown, 29 degrees.

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3 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

I see some pages that I follow(Justin berk and another) saying the warm bay is why there's so much sleet.. any validity to that statement? 

I had speculated on that yesterday after seeing an odd nose of warmer air at 850 on the Euro run. Just a guess but I think what we may have seen is better lift from the warmer bay in relation to the surrounding colder surface air. We had a warm nose of air underneath the 850's . With this lift it pushed that warmer air up into the snow growth region 850 and above. And with the easterly fetch of winds this pocket of warmer air has migrated west to over our region. Again, just speculation on my part.

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3 minutes ago, winterymix said:

The 0 degrees line on the warm air advection chart at 850 mb seems to line up nicely with the snow/sleet line.

For those that want to follow, just go to the mesoanalysis site and look for 850 mb warm air advection.   When that line slides

east, we should flip to snow.

 

Wow  thats crazy how far inland it pushed. Sucks up north, although they will probably do better as the low is moving away than we do. 

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Went out to put the bird feeders out. Everything is very crunchy. Did a couple measurements 1.75 inches of sleet/snow/ice. Everything is caked in ice. 

Temp 33.4

Rain Gauge: 0.22

Temp went down to 28.6 here last night at 1:25 AM. Pretty impressive. Didn't expect it to get that low and is probably why we have more ice. 

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4 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

Overnite temps went from 27 to 30.6.  Last 15 mins has seen temp drop from 30.4 to 29.9, pretty much removing rain from the sleet/rain slop combo.

Guesstimating 3-1/2" to 4" have fallen at this time.  Gonna have to rely on PIS for final tally.

 

and 5 mins later, down to 29.7, so the trend is definitely my friend.

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5 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

Overnite temps went from 27 to 30.6.  Last 15 mins has seen temp drop from 30.4 to 29.9, pretty much removing rain from the sleet/rain slop combo.

Guesstimating 3-1/2" to 4" have fallen at this time.  Gonna have to rely on PIS for final tally.

Two spotter reports from HoCo are 3.3 and 3.5. I was eyeballing about 3", so we're all in line it seems. Might verify the WSW if we can get some fluff if/when it flips back to snow.

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