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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ok, let's test the HRRR. This covers the period from midnight to 3AM. Normally I would say no chance with that stripe but a good bit has fallen and radar looks pretty sick. lol

 

The yellows are pretty persistent over that area so it could be right.  3" of sleet would be fun by 3am.

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In the winter of 1993-1994, when we got the sleet storm that dumped 3 inches of sleet on Dale City.

Overnight, the sleet hardened into a formidable sheet of ice. It was hell to walk on. I literally had to slide on it to get down hills. Lots of older people slipped on it and received grievous injuries. The temperatures would hit the upper 40s, even the 50s, little pools of water would form in this glacier, then just freeze again once the sun went down. it was like being way up in the Arctic.

This storm has got a lot of moisture. It will dump prodigious amounts of snow, like in N MD where two feet could easily pile up. But in places closer to I 95 there will be sleet. I think some places could accumulate 6 to 9 inches of sleet. You know how some of the model runs were calling for 8, or even 10, inches of snow and sleet? Maybe they were referring to 8 inches of mostly sleet. I wonder if a FOOT of mostly sleet is possible with this storm. it has sure got the dynamics and the moisture!

This will be a storm long remembered.

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7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Nice... I grew up in the HoCo part of Mt Airy... Off West Watersville Rd.  Great area for winter weather. I miss it haha 

Wow.... I travel down West Watersville Rd quite frequently on my way to Mt Airy.  It is a great area for winter weather.  I could have done without the tornado this past summer, however. :wacko:

Sleet starting to take over. 

 

MDstorm

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ok, let's test the HRRR. This covers the period from midnight to 3AM. Normally I would say no chance with that stripe but a good bit has fallen and radar looks pretty sick. lol

aT81A7.jpg

That's gonna bust low here.  I already am approaching 0.20" liquid since midnight with plenty more to come by 3:00 a.m.  The model has my area in the first shade of light green.

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4 minutes ago, Joshfsu123 said:

This. Can't see how OPM opens, especially since thousands drive in from the north and south. But yes, call won't be made until 4am.

Yup.  The odds of the fed gov't being closed tomorrow are north of 90%. Too many vairable conditions, too much risk to the morning commute, and too much possibility for significant additional accumulation during work hours that could lead to another commut-a-gedon scenario. This will be the only closure of the 2016-2017 winter. They're going to play it safe. 

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