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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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00z NAM forecast sounding between 11 pm - 2 am at DCA shows the surge in > 0C between approximately 900 mb to 800 mb, but it also shows the surface temp staying at or below freezing through the duration.  Once the transition happens, it certainly seems like we'll have sleet, sleet, and more sleet here in DC.

03z.jpg

06z.jpg

09z.jpg

12z.jpg

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

One thing to keep in mind is that this snow right now is less than 10:1 so use the snowfall maps with a grain of salt.

I was using Kuchera ratios.  At 10:1, the HRRR thinks I'll have about 19". 

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Looking at the 1z hrrr seems like the model is showing colder air in the mid levels getting drawn down into the deepening low pressure so the sleet line meets a little more resistance in MD. That battleground is going to be pretty wild to watch. A couple more nudges and a million extra snow weenies get some solid totals. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I approve 

I worry you'll be fringed.

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very interesting ob. I have a perfect rectangle of snow on the street in front of my house from where my truck was parked all day. I put it on the driveway right when snow started. Great example of isolation on pavement. Road is throwing in the towel finally. 

Same here, except it's where the holly in front of my house casts a shadow on the sidewalk. That's been covered for a while, even when the rest of the concrete/blacktop is still trying to cave.

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6 minutes ago, hosj III said:

I don't understand the somber mood here. We have multiple short range models (HRRR, RAP, Para-NAM) showing 2"+ of frozen precip over a decent area. Sure, it isn't the powder bomb we were all hoping for, but it looks memorable nonetheless. 

I get the impression many people are caught up on the idea that it's either a foot of snow -or- a slushy wet mess in the grass with nothing on the streets. There's some memorable ice potential if the surface stays cold enough and the sleet/freezing rain is heavy enough. Or maybe we'll surprise ourselves with snow in the morning.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Looking at the 1z hrrr seems like the model is showing colder air in the mid levels getting drawn down into the deepening low pressure so the sleet line meets a little more resistance in MD. That battleground is going to be pretty wild to watch. A couple more nudges and a million extra snow weenies get some solid totals. 

Yea saw that.  Hoping the cold wins out...I know we do this every time but that mix line seems to be going north pretty fast.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

HRRR does not factor in sleet in the snow algorithm.  I would advise against using the snow map in a situation like this.

That would explain it.  It's also consistent with what I'm seeing on pivotalweather.  It has snow accumulations piling up when the p-type is sleet.  I'm pretty sure it didn't do that for other models.

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