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March 13-14, The Blizzard of 2017: Obs


Rtd208

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1 minute ago, Manny said:

SN+ uptown manhattan. Winds picking up 

Yea, but doesn't seem to be accumulating well.. Getting very pasty, and think i am now hearing pingers in Harlem. See all the TV mets knocked down city into 6 to 8 or 6 to 12 inch range.. Starting to think you may have to go pretty far north, even past Westchester, to get over a foot.

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I disagree with Upton - I think trends are in our favor.  We're sleeting now because of the WAA at 850 and the storm not bombing yet.  But further south isn't a good analog for what's going to happen up here because they got the bulk of their precip from overrunning, before the 850 temps could cool as the 850 low passed and the storm got more organized and deepened.  My sense is we flip for a while but flip back late AM and then have several hours of very heavy rates of snow.  Orange County was always supposed to be the JP for this one but NYC still in line for really nasty conditions - over a foot of mixed snow/sleet and nasty winds and flooding.  The QPF forecast looks good so far.

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Just now, Drz1111 said:

I disagree with Upton - I think trends are in our favor.  We're sleeting now because of the WAA at 850 and the storm not bombing yet.  But further south isn't a good analog for what's going to happen up here because they got the bulk of their precip from overrunning, before the 850 temps could cool as the 850 low passed and the storm got more organized and deepened.  My sense is we flip for a while but flip back late AM and then have several hours of very heavy rates of snow.  Orange County was always supposed to be the JP for this one but NYC still in line for really nasty conditions - over a foot of mixed snow/sleet and nasty winds and flooding.  The QPF forecast looks good so far.

NYC will have no problem with QPF....it's going to be heavy heavy stuff in an hour or so whether it's snow or not. I do think for the city itself, things could get dicey....I really believe people are underestimating the warm nose. Eastern parts of the city/metro could get screwed.

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. I hate to say it but didn't the old nam out perform the para nam on this storm? Last night Para was east of the current location while the current location aligns with the nam.

I think you are right... Also, looking even farther back, didn't the GFS consistently have a coastal hugger last Friday and Saturday but everyone discounted it and went with the Euro, if I recall correctly.

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9 minutes ago, mranger48 said:

Wanna know we have a problem? My friend is reporting sleet in Long valley, NJ. Elevation 970ft. That's between 78 and 80 well west of 287


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But all that tells you is that the mixing lime is oriented due E-W.  that's not sustainable at the height of the storm - it should realign parallel to the coast as this organizes. There's going to be an area that flips back and dumps.

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2 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Dynamic cooling once the low starts to bomb out. I don't even think it got crankin yet..

 

989  down 3mb last hour / no dynamic cooling here .The center tucked and is over VA beach .

This will taint way further N than what was modeled.

 

The center will kiss AC.

 

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1 minute ago, snowjoe99 said:

Wallington NJ 07057

26 degrees/ 27 dewpoint

4.5 inches of snow so far (no mixing as of yet)

 

You guys think I escape the brunt of the mixing? Or is my area gonna be a bust too?

 

Definitely going to mix and probably change over, at least to sleet.  Snow might fight back later though, we'll have to see.  I think it's time to forget about the big snow totals and go outside for a walk to enjoy a major March winter storm.

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But all that tells you is that the mixing lime is oriented due E-W.  that's not sustainable at the height of the storm - it should realign parallel to the coast as this organizes. There's going to be an area that flips back and dumps.


Most models had it oriented sw to ne leaving those north and west of 287 all snow


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1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

989 / no dynamic cooling here .The center tucked and is over VA beach .

This will taint way further N than what was modeled.

So she's even further west then what was pronged. I'm out plowing so checking in every once in a while. Oh well... bye bye 18-24..lol

1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

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