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BxEngine

Spring Banter Thread

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6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

yeah TWC guy Rizoli slicing NYC totals to 6-10 per their two models they use RPM and ARW

That's seriously what they use?  Wow

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5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's seriously what they use?  Wow

meanwhile his name isn't Rizoli lol

anyway 0z nam is coming in west

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Just now, SnowBlitzkrieg said:

LI is screwed IMO. I'll be shocked if we see more than 6".

This storm has bust written all over it. Never trust a March snowstorm in CNJ. I've seen so many not pan out over the decades. I kinda hoped we might buck history for once. Northern areas will do well, but  I think the totals for the rest of us are going to start dropping from here on out. 

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Looking like more sleet/rain in NYC according to most latest HR model runs. Imagine if this only gives us 6 inches, the public will be blaming every weather forecaster for "hyping" the storm. I feel this scenario is definitely on the table.

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Just now, weathermedic said:

Looking like more sleet/rain in NYC according to most latest HR model runs. Imagine if this only gives us 6 inches, the public will be blaming every weather forecaster for "hyping" the storm. I feel this scenario is definitely in the table.

And its exactly what I suspect will happen, about 4-5 inches of sleet then rain. Each run of each model is introducing worse scenarios for us, although the general public will be pleased and will be thanking their stars we didn't get 2 feet....

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At a bar in Manhattan, and it's packed with people expecting 20 inches cause now everyone has offf work tomorrow .. I Don't have stomach to talk about latest mode trends. But if the NAM is correct, people will think this is a huge Weather fail. Maybe not as bad as 2015 cause hype overall was less for this storm, but still, people are expecting a very snowy day tomorrow.  At least they didn't activate the emergency alert system and close the subway like January 2015 

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4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

should we put the suicide watch on

they should put you in charge of the forum for tomorrow

Just make it Winter Warlock Appreciation Day.

Or Something.

lol

 

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8 minutes ago, real said:

At a bar in Manhattan, and it's packed with people expecting 20 inches cause now everyone has offf work tomorrow .. I Don't have stomach to talk about latest mode trends. But if the NAM is correct, people will think this is a huge Weather fail. Maybe not as bad as 2015 cause hype overall was less for this storm, but still, people are expecting a very snowy day tomorrow.  At least they didn't activate the emergency alert system and close the subway like January 2015 

They suspended above ground subway trains. 

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9 minutes ago, real said:

At a bar in Manhattan, and it's packed with people expecting 20 inches cause now everyone has offf work tomorrow .. I Don't have stomach to talk about latest mode trends. But if the NAM is correct, people will think this is a huge Weather fail. Maybe not as bad as 2015 cause hype overall was less for this storm, but still, people are expecting a very snowy day tomorrow.  At least they didn't activate the emergency alert system and close the subway like January 2015 

haha you remember when they shut everything down and evacuated for Irene?

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10 minutes ago, real said:

At a bar in Manhattan, and it's packed with people expecting 20 inches cause now everyone has offf work tomorrow .. I Don't have stomach to talk about latest mode trends. But if the NAM is correct, people will think this is a huge Weather fail. Maybe not as bad as 2015 cause hype overall was less for this storm, but still, people are expecting a very snowy day tomorrow.  At least they didn't activate the emergency alert system and close the subway like January 2015 

Problem is the screw ups are getting more frequent...it's one thing to blow a 4-6 incher, but we now have several blown 2 footers. If it happens again, there's a problem, right here in River City.....

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not sure why everyone in the other thread is just discounting this solution..you know if it confirmed it or upped the amounts people would lock in. NAM and RGEM always had issues...again not saying its going to happen but we cannot just toss right? This would flip many to rain by 8 AM or at least mixed

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1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

not sure why everyone in the other thread is just discounting this solution..you know if it confirmed it or upped the amounts people would lock in. NAM and RGEM always had issues...again not saying its going to happen but we cannot just toss right? This would flip many to rain by 8 AM or at least mixed

Because there are 3 different nams now and they don't agree with each other

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5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Problem is the screw ups are getting more frequent...it's one thing to blow a 4-6 incher, but we now have several blown 2 footers. If it happens again, there's a problem, right here in River City.....

well we did well with last year's storm (not sure about your area.)

funny thing is some snow lovers are so hooked they need every single storm to be a hit.  I was sated with last year's big storm and the two decent storms we had this year.

after 95-96 we had a snow drought for a few years but I didn't care because that season was so perfect it just couldn't get any better so I just ignored winter for a few years after that and started paying attention again in 2000-01 lol

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2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

not sure why everyone in the other thread is just discounting this solution..you know if it confirmed it or upped the amounts people would lock in. NAM and RGEM always had issues...again not saying its going to happen but we cannot just toss right? This would flip many to rain by 8 AM or at least mixed

"Everyone"? Christ.

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Because there are 3 different nams now and they don't agree with each other

aren't they going to get rid of some of them soon and just keep one?

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1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

not sure why everyone in the other thread is just discounting this solution..you know if it confirmed it or upped the amounts people would lock in. NAM and RGEM always had issues...again not saying its going to happen but we cannot just toss right? This would flip many to rain by 8 AM or at least mixed

Well I think you have a good point. it doesn't seem like the pros are willing to toss these solutions, they get paid to do this and they seem to be responding to it from what I am reading here.

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Just now, BxEngine said:

"Everyone"? Christ.

warlock needs his own thread lol- there should be a "banter thread" and a "warlock banter" thread

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Just now, Paragon said:

well we did well with last year's storm (not sure about your area.)

funny thing is some snow lovers are so hooked they need every single storm to be a hit.  I was sated with last year's big storm and the two decent storms we had this year.

after 95-96 we had a snow drought for a few years but I didn't care because that season was so perfect it just couldn't get any better so I just ignored winter for a few years after that and started paying attention again in 2000-01 lol

Oh I hear ya. Last year we did just fine. This year the storms largely underperformed for us. Was hoping for a good one and haven't totally give up, but this just isn't our year for snow. i prefer a year like 94 or 2014 with multiple 8-12 inchers to these freak 22-30 inchers that often fail to materialize. Especially in March. Right now potential is for this to rival 2001 for busting, remember some folks still did ok in that storm but the immediate metro area only had a few inches of sleet. Plus there have been numerous smaller March storms over the decades that always found a way to fall apart. When you've seen that over some 50 years, you get kind of skeptical that anything big will happen in MArch.

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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Oh I hear ya. Last year we did just fine. This year the storms largely underperformed for us. Was hoping for a good one and haven't totally give up, but this just isn't our year for snow. i prefer a year like 94 or 2014 with multiple 8-12 inchers to these freak 22-30 inchers that often fail to materialize. Especially in March. Right now potential is for this to rival 2001 for busting, remember some folks still did ok in that storm but the immediate metro area only had a few inches of sleet. Plus there have been numerous smaller March storms over the decades that always found a way to fall apart. When you've seen that over some 50 years, you get kind of skeptical that anything big will happen in MArch.

the "reverse" 3/01 since that one was good for Suffolk County (16") and okay for Nassau (6")

the weekend "threat" looks like it might be a mix of rain and snow too.

Our April storms seem to work out better than March- remember April 82, 96, 2003

 

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1 minute ago, Paragon said:

the "reverse" 3/01 since that one was good for Suffolk County (16") and okay for Nassau (6")

the weekend "threat" looks like it might be a mix of rain and snow too.

After this one I am done. It's time for spring. 

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my mother always told me if an incoming storm arrives with sleet when its  been a cold few days, expect half a meter of snow. hope she was right. she's an old timer and they didn't have computers than. We'll see tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

my mother always told me if an incoming storm arrives with sleet when its  been a cold few days, expect half a meter of snow. hope she was right. she's an old timer and they didn't have computers than. We'll see tomorrow.

half a meter?  was she british or canadian?

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