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Spring Banter Thread


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Just now, snywx said:

lol... It truly is impressive how the NAM handled this event. I know many discounted it from jump but gotta give credit where credit is due

NAM must be taken seriously, especially after its successes the last two years, did they give it an update and forget to tell us lol?

 

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Climatology doesn't matter if you have a favorable pattern in place

It's about a lot of things that make March not ideal- think of 06-07.  You need the winter as a whole to be really cold to pull off a big March snow anymore near the coast- like 14-15

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Climatology doesn't matter if you have a favorable pattern in place

Very true. We just don't get really favorable patterns in March as a rule. Something always screws up what looks like a good snow storm. And in ways you don't always expect; like suppression to the Mid Atlantic in March 2014, or more commonly a warm nose, or a switch to SE winds. If it ain't one thing its another. i will say this, had they not been honking a huge blizzard, this would have still have been too nasty to do much in. It's evil out there. And I am piling up some impressive sleet.

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Very true. We just don't get really favorable patterns in March as a rule. Something always screws up what looks like a good snow storm. And in ways you don't always expect; like suppression to the Mid Atlantic in March 2014, or more commonly a warm nose, or a switch to SE winds. If it ain't one thing its another. i will say this, had they not been honking a huge blizzard, this would have still have been too nasty to do much in. It's evil out there. And I am piling up some impressive sleet.

It reminds me very much of 2006-07, the winter was also very similar in that it was mild.

I don't think you can expect anything big in March anymore near the coast unless the winter as a whole has already been a cold one- like 2014-15.

 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Very true. We just don't get really favorable patterns in March as a rule. Something always screws up what looks like a good snow storm. And in ways you don't always expect; like suppression to the Mid Atlantic in March 2014, or more commonly a warm nose, or a switch to SE winds. If it ain't one thing its another. i will say this, had they not been honking a huge blizzard, this would have still have been too nasty to do much in. It's evil out there. And I am piling up some impressive sleet.

In the last thirty minutes, it's been sleeting like it's 1994 at MMU. 

Speaking of impressive, SN+ in the daylight hours, followed by heavy, wind-driven sleet, coupled with impassable roads... that's pretty amazing for mid-March.

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3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It reminds me very much of 2006-07, the winter was also very similar in that it was mild.

I don't think you can expect anything big in March anymore near the coast unless the winter as a whole has already been a cold one- like 2014-15.

 

Yup. Would have been happy with anything this year, but darn did they leave me at the altar with this one

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5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It's about a lot of things that make March not ideal- think of 06-07.  You need the winter as a whole to be really cold to pull off a big March snow anymore near the coast- like 14-15

I'm not sure if you realize how close this was to getting it done. If this ended up being just not quite as amped up, or the upper air pattern is just a shade further east we end up buried. As it is, I'm slightly above seasonal average for snow here. If you were to show me the map below before the season and ask me what kind of snow totals we would end up with, I would take the way way under.

 

m3tdpt_northeast_feb17.png.e5d7a539b374f94e8ff54ed7228c947a.png

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

and it's never gonna happen lol.  You know how our winters and cold season have narrowed down to DJF (with the notable exception of 2015 of course.)

 

I have a strong feeling that even if this storm had taken the "ideal" track for NYC it still would have found a way to bust somehow.

It's tough to go against the NW trend on our storms last few years. We just need them to start out far enough SE so when they come back it they don't hug the coast like today. The lack of blocking over the AO and NAO regions also gave this the green light to keep coming west.

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.790ba44f110369afae14fe35a0032802.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's tough to go against the NW trend on our storms last few years. We just need it to start out far enough SE so when it comes back it doesn't hug the coast like today. The lack of blocking over the AO and NAO regions also gave this the green light to keep coming west.

We just can't get the big ones here without good blocking can we....

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We just can't get the big ones here without good blocking can we....

We just need stronger blocking on the Pacific side like there was for January 2015 to compensate for the lack of Atlantic blocking. March has a long history of throwing the models curveballs as transition months can be tough.

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38 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Lmao Cuomo just said Sandy wasn't that serious in NYC........ what??????

After that, he said that it was serious lol

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's tough to go against the NW trend on our storms last few years. We just need them to start out far enough SE so when they come back it they don't hug the coast like today. The lack of blocking over the AO and NAO regions also gave this the green light to keep coming west.

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.790ba44f110369afae14fe35a0032802.gif

 

This was forecasted to drop negative. That's why many people were excited about a big snowstorm in NYC.

AO never went negative

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

After that, he said that it was serious lol

This was forecasted to drop negative. That's why many people were excited about a big snowstorm in NYC.

AO never went negative

With the exception of the blizzard last January, the AO has been a huge disappointment after March 2013. Luckily, the Pacific has been there to pick up the slack. But in situations like this during March, a -AO would have been helpful.

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11 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

It would figure that after seeing NEPA get the shaft and NYC get all the HECS storms...I move to NYC and now NEPA gets the HECS while NYC gets the shaft. 

Convinced I'll never see another 12"+ storm again.

(I'm only half-joking.)

You should still end with 8-10" if you're in the Bronx. Heck of a lot better than what I'll end with.

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this really sucked on LI. i woke up at 5:30am and already heard the pinging of sleet. i never was able to go back to sleep again. BUT, we've been incredibly fortunate over the past 7 years or so with big snow storms, I can't actually remember one busting like this (to rain/sleet) since I was in high school. the busts are kind of entertaining in their own right. i'm happy for everyone who is getting crushed right now, especially anyone who missed out on last years big blizzard.

i've never seen this much sleet before, though, so there's that.

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