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March 13/14th PSU Storm


stormtracker

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In many ways this storm seems to want to simply follow our climo textbook. We probably could have saved a lot of time and just made that call 3 days ago instead of over analyzing every single model known to man and even a few that arent known. 

Great post. It is amazing how these things ALWAYS seem to work out the same. Really the only major difference are the speed of the storm. Which then has an effect on total QPF. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very nice 2-3 hour stall on the 3k nam. Much stronger deform as well. Agree with matt. This is a thing to watch because it's the high ratio snow part of the storm. 

Ha. That back side looks great on the new NAM. Had it on the last two runs also to some degree, but this one is the best by far.

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3k nam looks great and I think still shows the potential from upside. The good snows continue to shift southwest. Most of the reason the NAM looks better is more consolidation and better orientation of the shortwave. Would love support from the globals but very encouraging trends. Almost no break from initial WAA slug and CCB formation, which has also come east slightly.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very nice 2-3 hour stall on the 3k nam. Much stronger deform as well. Agree with matt. This is a thing to watch because it's the high ratio snow part of the storm. 

Ignoring the precise total numbers on the snowfall maps (yeah, I know!!)...and just looking at the delta amount between ~12-18Z, would imply a few inches in there with the wrap-around and bands.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very nice 2-3 hour stall on the 3k nam. Much stronger deform as well. Agree with matt. This is a thing to watch because it's the high ratio snow part of the storm. 

It has a death band in the usual spot that eventually swings through the city...If correct, we'll be getting raked with +SN in the 8am -11am period...

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm having some trouble with the colors on TT, it is trying to throw down 0.5" qpf after the morning switch?

I don't like the color gradations on there either (with aging eyes, lol!), but that kind of appears similar to what I saw in the snow maps.  A few inches perhaps after the flip back from sleet, in those deformation bands?

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10 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Don't my bow out man. Some people just catch feelings really easy around here. 

The nams definitely improved which is great to see this close to game time.

:rolleyes:

  With the amount of trolls that slip in here when we're down made me naturally think he was one.  We sorted it out and he's good.  

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

It has a death band in the usual spot that eventually swings through the city...If correct, we'll be getting raked with +SN in the 8am -11am period...

My only worry is the light fluffy powder bomb might roll clean off the 83 trillion frozen ball bearings on my yard. 

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

 Remember:  that's snow + sleet.   Applying a 10:1 ratio with sleet like TT is doing won't work out, but that's why the map looks so amazing.

I agree.... but I still think those maps are useful for comparisons from previous runs, even if they shouldn't be taken at face value. The fact that a lot more of us get 1"+ of frozen QPF than we did in the 0z run is very encouraging.

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