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March 13/14th PSU Storm

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One hell of a band on the west side of the storm. Problem is looks warm at first glance for you guys in DC etc due to the more westerly track of the LP.

USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_028.gif

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NAM is just off OC at 30h, and is really REALLY wet. Wow. Someone's getting mauled, verbatim.

Temps are verrrrry iffy, though for I-95-south and east.

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1 minute ago, Ltrain said:

They finally changed the watch areas to an advisory. I can't believe it took them that long to decide actually. 

It's funny how nobody is more than code yellow.

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When all is said and done after all the negative model runs last night--warmer air, westward ticks---it is nice to see that the NWS 4:00 am update still "clings" 6-10 just west of DC. 

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1 minute ago, Ltrain said:

3km nam looks better than the other 2. 

image.png

I'd definitely take this.  I wonder if the higher resolution of the 3km NAM is picking up on some mesoscale/microscale effects that induce a bit more cooling that the other models have missed.  Sitting in College Park, I hope that is the case, though the westward progression of other models has me worried.

Either way, I'll be carefully monitoring temperatures throughout the day.  A difference in 1-2 degrees in the immediate antecedent airmass (i.e. within a few hours of sunset) could make a real impact on accumulations.

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I'd be careful with those snow maps. I don't know for sure, but I think a lot of the "accumulation" in the 95 corridor is something other than accumulating snow. Also, some of that is after sunrise tomorrow after the change back to snow, and it will be tough to accumulate this time of the year during the day with the advertised rates as the storm moves northeast.

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4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'd be careful with those snow maps. I don't know for sure, but I think a lot of the "accumulation" in the 95 corridor is something other than accumulating snow. Also, some of that is after sunrise tomorrow after the change back to snow, and it will be tough to accumulate this time of the year during the day with the advertised rates as the storm moves northeast.

Just saw a scene from Chicago....light snow at 4:30am and the streets are just wet

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This mornings 12K NAM is ugly. Just a casual glance tells me that it would probably be a sleetfest from the cities and fairly well north and west. The snowfall maps that it throws out, just throw them away because a good deal of the snow they are showing is nothing more then sleet. You could probably cut the totals through the cities, and 25-35 miles north and west, in half if not 3/4 and then you might have a somewhat accurate idea of what to expect. 

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GFS holding steady. Looks like some mixing/changeover briefly along I-95, but fairly cold and wet N and W. Basically a solid hit from DC to Baltimore, scaling up even better as you move toward the favored areas.

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Wow both WRF mesoscale models look awesome for the blue ridge from KROA up the corridor. Much colder and has a lot of moisture as snow. 

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS has more up this way...  Looks closer to the Euro and RGEM.

Very wet up this way. Over 1.5 qpf. through 18z Tuesday.

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22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'd be careful with those snow maps. I don't know for sure, but I think a lot of the "accumulation" in the 95 corridor is something other than accumulating snow. Also, some of that is after sunrise tomorrow after the change back to snow, and it will be tough to accumulate this time of the year during the day with the advertised rates as the storm moves northeast.

Snow accumulated in Charlotte, NC the other day and it was daytime and the rates were low. I know what you mean about the snow maps, most of us know. It's just shown for comparison against the previous run. Either way the 6z 3km was showing more frozen than the 0z 3km. 

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Welp.  Last night it's evident this thing trended away from us in the immediate metro.  No point in ignoring reality anymore.  Probably gonna end up with an inch or two of slop and a lotta rain IMBY.  Hopefully the folks up north do well.  

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

At this point I'm rooting for a sleet bomb here like what the nam is showing...avoiding rain is my bar now

If the NAMs (4K was ugly as well) were to verify I think there would be many in this forum who would be disappointed, to put it mildly. But I think the NAM is out to lunch even though it is within 24 hours. Not going to bother looking into why because I don't care. I'll just throw out the standard convective feedback issue. :)

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Well if anybody wants a boost to keep them off the ledge - the 0z parallel GFS is pretty intense with snowfall :P

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The one thing that's encouraging about this storm is that it comes after a period of cold air, rather than the summer temps we saw in the march 13 disaster. Just from memory it seems like we tend to do a lot better holding onto cold than vice versa. I wonder if model tendency to scour out cold temps too quickly in CAD events might be relevant here?  

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GFS took a bit of a step back for DC-Balt looking at 3 hour panels...Still a shellacking for Western burbs ttho

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