clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4K NAM has an interesting wrap around band that goes through the city tomorrow evening as well. The NAMs in general are much better for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, PennQuakerGirl said: So is the impact of heavy sleet on top of snow (followed by sub-freezing temps) worse for commuters/road conditions than, say, an all-snow system? Absolutely yes. Gets compacted and refrozen into pretty much solid ice on side streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Parallel 12k nam never let's surface temps to get above 27 up here during the day tomorrow and has it bottoming out at 24 early morning. Fluff factor in full effect up here. Looks like a biggie cummin!! Carroll County (esp. NE) and Thurmont are looking like the sweet spots for this event and you can see that on LWX's snow map. It wouldn't surprise me if someone get 20" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Parallel 12k nam never let's surface temps to get above 27 up here during the day tomorrow and has it bottoming out at 24 early morning. Fluff factor in full effect up here. Looks like a biggie cummin!! Has the look of being my biggest March storm since moving out here in Dec 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: So is the impact of heavy sleet on top of snow (followed by sub-freezing temps) worse for commuters/road conditions than, say, an all-snow system? Sleet is harder to melt than snow, so, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm gonna ride that one i mean if thats the New NAM in a few days...why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Yeah H triple R looks great, but like Mitch said, doesn't it always at this time? I mean I'd love for that run to be right. If we're still hanging on to snow at 2am, it's a win, but those pinks are coming It does but this year it's looked good by being a little northwest and wet at long range then shifts east a bit. That screwed us a little in early january. It was pretty good the whole time with feb 9 showing the snow boundary along the pa border. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Of course I'm joking. I wonder if we can make a run of a substantial sleet accumulation...like 3" of snow, then 2" of sleet then 4" of snow on top of that I think that's pretty reasonable, although I'd probably up the amount of sleet in the middle. The 3km ptype evolution is less rainy for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 hour QPF from 8 am to 2 pm on 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 if this para is the new nam...were going to have alot of fun next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 6 hour QPF from 8 am to 2 pm on 3k NAM Wow....I guess this is sorta our best case scenario. Maybe 4-5 inches of snow to heavy sleet to 4-5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: if this para is the new nam...were going to have alot of fun next winter One of our crappy events this winter it was the warmer/drier solution to its special cousins. And that worked out pretty well. And the old way wet NAM bias is allegedly gone in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 If we get several inches of snow then a driving sleet bomb then several more inches of snow...my brain says that may be more fun than a boring 12-18" of melted snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13z HRRR doesn't look good to me... maybe 2" of snow before we mix at 3 AM... yeah we don't mix until 3 but but the initial surge is meager. Of course we don't know what happens after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6z JMA has a nice deform through the corridor tomorrow morning too. The entire event is similar to other guidance with mixing and such but a good run in the mix either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NWS holding firm with WSW to the west Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1047 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505>507-WVZ051>053- 132300- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 1047 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches with higher amounts across north-central Maryland. * TIMING...Snow will overspread the area this evening and persist through Tuesday morning. The heaviest snow will occur between midnight and 8 AM with rates of one to two inches per hour possible. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. * WINDS...Northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Sleet is harder to melt than snow, so, yes. Not to mention heavy. Remember guys/gals - heavy, wet snow is a widowmaker. Pace yourselves while shoveling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: NWS holding firm with WSW to the west Actually they upped totals. It was 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, snjókoma said: 13z HRRR doesn't look good to me... maybe 2" of snow before we mix at 3 AM... yeah we don't mix until 3 but but the initial surge is meager. Of course we don't know what happens after. There's definitely a time period of mixing but I don't think anyone would be upset at this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: You moved up here 6 months too late. Should be very impressive here. We COULD approach 93 superstorm totals ( 20"-22") . Winds look to peak at 35-40 gusts. Travel will be impossible for a time imo.. Didn't realize it will get that windy. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Whats the sleet ratio? How many inches of precip do you need for an inch of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM coming in wetter with the WAA precip. Nice feed from central/eastern NC that wasn't there in the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM out to 24 and it is pretty warm. Pushes sleet very close to Winchester even. DC does flip back over for an hour or so around 15Z not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: With the amount of trolls that slip in here when we're down made me naturally think he was one. We sorted it out and he's good. I didn't mean to overstep my bounds in here. Obviously you're highly respected. I just don't like to see people get picked on. Mainly because when I first started posting people weren't all that nice sometimes What I like about the 3k nam is its consolidation earlier. That is an important piece that will bump totals from 3-6 range to maybe 6-10 (maybe)... I will be watching The HRRR and the last useful runs for the rest of the Global's to see if we can get that consolidation to take place per the 3K's suggestion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM used to be such a good short-range model. I feel like it's been awful lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 28 minutes ago, high risk said: Remember: that's snow + sleet. Applying a 10:1 ratio with sleet like TT is doing won't work out, but that's why the map looks so amazing. Also it's showing accumulations once it changes back to snow. The middle part of the storm is accumulating sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: RGEM used to be such a good short-range model. I feel like it's been awful lately. It gave DC 6" on both 1/7 and 2/9 this year. Its been consistently terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM is a good thump through 15h, and although we lose 850 after the surface is still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: RGEM is a good thump through 15h, and although we lose 850 after the surface is still cold. Define good thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Define good thump I dont have QPF. But for DC 2-3 hours snow. 8-9 hours mix. 1 Hour of snow. It also has that quick hitting evening band tomorrow that the 4K had. But its rain on the RGEM. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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