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March 13/14th PSU Storm


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1 minute ago, Ltrain said:

3km nam looks better than the other 2. 

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I'd definitely take this.  I wonder if the higher resolution of the 3km NAM is picking up on some mesoscale/microscale effects that induce a bit more cooling that the other models have missed.  Sitting in College Park, I hope that is the case, though the westward progression of other models has me worried.

Either way, I'll be carefully monitoring temperatures throughout the day.  A difference in 1-2 degrees in the immediate antecedent airmass (i.e. within a few hours of sunset) could make a real impact on accumulations.

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I'd be careful with those snow maps. I don't know for sure, but I think a lot of the "accumulation" in the 95 corridor is something other than accumulating snow. Also, some of that is after sunrise tomorrow after the change back to snow, and it will be tough to accumulate this time of the year during the day with the advertised rates as the storm moves northeast.

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4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'd be careful with those snow maps. I don't know for sure, but I think a lot of the "accumulation" in the 95 corridor is something other than accumulating snow. Also, some of that is after sunrise tomorrow after the change back to snow, and it will be tough to accumulate this time of the year during the day with the advertised rates as the storm moves northeast.

Just saw a scene from Chicago....light snow at 4:30am and the streets are just wet

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This mornings 12K NAM is ugly. Just a casual glance tells me that it would probably be a sleetfest from the cities and fairly well north and west. The snowfall maps that it throws out, just throw them away because a good deal of the snow they are showing is nothing more then sleet. You could probably cut the totals through the cities, and 25-35 miles north and west, in half if not 3/4 and then you might have a somewhat accurate idea of what to expect. 

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22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'd be careful with those snow maps. I don't know for sure, but I think a lot of the "accumulation" in the 95 corridor is something other than accumulating snow. Also, some of that is after sunrise tomorrow after the change back to snow, and it will be tough to accumulate this time of the year during the day with the advertised rates as the storm moves northeast.

Snow accumulated in Charlotte, NC the other day and it was daytime and the rates were low. I know what you mean about the snow maps, most of us know. It's just shown for comparison against the previous run. Either way the 6z 3km was showing more frozen than the 0z 3km. 

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

At this point I'm rooting for a sleet bomb here like what the nam is showing...avoiding rain is my bar now

If the NAMs (4K was ugly as well) were to verify I think there would be many in this forum who would be disappointed, to put it mildly. But I think the NAM is out to lunch even though it is within 24 hours. Not going to bother looking into why because I don't care. I'll just throw out the standard convective feedback issue. :)

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The one thing that's encouraging about this storm is that it comes after a period of cold air, rather than the summer temps we saw in the march 13 disaster. Just from memory it seems like we tend to do a lot better holding onto cold than vice versa. I wonder if model tendency to scour out cold temps too quickly in CAD events might be relevant here?  

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Looking at the 500's, the 06Z is almost spot on with the 00Z with only some very slight differences which are mostly likely nothing more then noise. About the only thing of note is that the low pressure in the gulf is coming in a little stronger and the low pressure in the southeast a little weaker so we see a little more dig from our shortwave. The impacts of this are a slightly slower solution initially, a track off the coast that is very slightly inside of the 00Z and a touch stronger coastal low. Surface depiction reflects these differences with a shifting of the precip field west slightly and better qpf totals .

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8 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

A step back relative to what? Looks better to my eye than 0Z. Certainly no worse.

You're in Towson so you look to be OK on both..but there is a bit more mixing for DC-southern Balt...Im not saying its as bad as some other guidance, but there is more mixing on this run at least for a time.

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