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March 13/14th PSU Storm


stormtracker

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GFS fully coming in to line with my expectations. We got drier last few runs because we lost the inverted trough and now are dealing with a classic coastal. Things are starting to get wetter and move southwest. This is a much much better look. Expect it to trend wetter right up until game time. I also don't expect SLP or thermals to come much further west and might even trend colder, due to the natural tendency for cyclogenesis to occur along the baroclinic zone. Sub 986 at OC would not shock me when all is said and done. Seeing the CMC and GGEM continue to follow the GFS will make me feel even better

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GFS Kuchera isn't nearly as good. Also looks to me like the snow really doesn't explode until it gets to Philly and Jersey, and the heaviest period of snow doesn't last very long. It does look like we get some flurries or very light snow for quite a long period after it rolls by to keep it wintry.

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3 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said:

GFS fully coming in to line with my expectations. We got drier last few runs because we lost the inverted trough and now are dealing with a classic coastal. Things are starting to get wetter and move southwest. This is a much much better look. Expect it to trend wetter right up until game time. I also don't expect SLP or thermals to come much further west and might even trend colder, due to the natural tendency for cyclogenesis to occur along the baroclinic zone. Sub 986 at OC would not shock me when all is said and done. Seeing the CMC and GGEM continue to follow the GFS will make me feel even better

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Sw of DC the qpf is much lower as the coastal bombs too late. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

GFS Kuchera isn't nearly as good. Also looks to me like the snow really doesn't explode until it gets to Philly and Jersey, and the heaviest period of snow doesn't last very long. It does look like we get some flurries or very light snow for quite a long period after it rolls by to keep it wintry.

Kuchera gives SE DC 8 instead of 10. Still not bad. It actually gives me a bit more in Moco.

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