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March 13/14th PSU Storm


stormtracker

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This run was just funky. But it made a big jump nw with the qpf field but it has a drastically different storm evolution from the consensus of all the other guidance.  Ok this sounds crazy but toss it. It's struggling right now. Before you throw rocks at me for blasphemy let me make the case to toss. 

The euro is not perfect. It was by far the worst leading into the storm last January with a couple fake out suppressed runs. Even to the end it was south of the gfs. It caused me some unneeded headaches up here having me on the northern fringe when in reality the gfs having that up in pa was closer and even that wasn't North enough. 

Its been jumping all over with this. So maybe it's right but which version. The run 12z Friday that looked like everything else tonight did. The run last night that was warm. The cold suppressed run today or this weird disjointed one tonight. It's all over the place run to run. 

Given its wild swings and a total consensus among all the other guidance I think it argues we toss this even if it is the euro. 

Amen, It only really has support from tonight's NAM, and that still really isn't enough

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Psu, I can't even figure out what's making it so different. It's juiced. Precip comes in early and relatively heavy. Track is good. Ns low dies off like other guidance. But the end result is quite different for our area.  

Your right and it's just one more reason I toss it. I'm not just saying that I'm really just throwing this out and disregarding it. I know that's usually crazy with the euro but every other reputable model has locked in on a similar storm progression tonight. The euro has an outlier solution and it looks weird to boot. And on top of that the euro has been flailing around with vastly different storm evolutions each run. The gfs has been very consistent with minor trends while the euro jumps all over the place run to run.  I don't know what it's having trouble with but we know it's struggling because even if this  is right (doubtful) it's now giving 2 feet to some places that barely got a few inches last run. So one of its forecasts is a horrible bust already. I really think we toss it right now. 

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I'm glad you said it because we shouldn't forget how the euro lost its king status earlier this season. It's been wonky the last few runs. I won't go as far as to say toss completely, but there was damn good consensus tonight among the guidance and even if none of those are as amped on gameday those depictions were still less wonky than the euro tonight...or 12z...

Yea, how can we possibly trust it right now when it's last 4 runs are spitting out wildly different solutions as if this is still a week away. Besides let's not forget the 4-6" it thought DC and Baltimore was getting 48 and even 24 hours before the feb 9 storm. It's not always right and it seems to be struggling with this. 

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This run was just funky. But it made a big jump nw with the qpf field but it has a drastically different storm evolution from the consensus of all the other guidance.  Ok this sounds crazy but toss it. It's struggling right now. Before you throw rocks at me for blasphemy let me make the case to toss. 

The euro is not perfect. It was by far the worst leading into the storm last January with a couple fake out suppressed runs. Even to the end it was south of the gfs. It caused me some unneeded headaches up here having me on the northern fringe when in reality the gfs having that up in pa was closer and even that wasn't North enough. 

Its been jumping all over with this. So maybe it's right but which version. The run 12z Friday that looked like everything else tonight did. The run last night that was warm. The cold suppressed run today or this weird disjointed one tonight. It's all over the place run to run. 

Given its wild swings and a total consensus among all the other guidance I think it argues we toss this even if it is the euro. 

Also didn't someone mention a while back the relative lack of analogs for this setup? Maybe the Euro is having trouble with an unusual and dynamic event playing into its weaknesses...

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10 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Also didn't someone mention a while back the relative lack of analogs for this setup? Maybe the Euro is having trouble with an unusual and dynamic event playing into its weaknesses...

I don't know. I won't pretend to know enough about the physics of the model to say what's giving it a hard time. I know it's been said that the gfs is better with northern branch systems. Perhaps the euro is having issues with the interaction with the northern system. Or it's just crapping the bed like the gfs does so often. 

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You can see the data from those extra GOMEX balloons on CMC upper air maps. The 500 mb additional data confirm a very small kink in the zonal flow associated with that cluster of thunderstorms in the GOMEX. If there was a 1-dm instead of 6-dm analysis it would have maybe two closed heights of 577 and 576 south of IAH. Otherwise the additional data did not look much different from what you might interpolate from the map without them. 

I think the difference between Euro and most other guidance is within the margin of error at 48-60h given the weak nature of the initial players in this complex scenario. It may not indicate anything about model capability, just the culmination of many steps with small differences spreading out (like poll uncertainty). If something more organized happens in the Gulf before 06z Monday, it will be increasingly evident from the usual data available for numerical progs anyway. 

The real range of possible outcomes is probably wider than the entire range of model solutions we have at this stage. CMC looks very bullish because an upper low begins to form away from the main ULL right over the 00z Tuesday position, so the storm is rapidly stacking before there's any chance of mischief from the west. This is where you actually have upside potential, what if some of this GOMEX energy makes an organized move into the subtropical jet and deepens the GA low by 5-10 mbs by Monday 12z -- and there is a CMC style transfer of low heights to a deeper low -- then this could really go ballistic (on a perfect track for you and most other east coast interests too). 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ha, yup..finally getting a clue..that 51-54 hour panel is crushing.  Checked soundings and it's snow.

Did you stay up the whole night? 

No need for panic from anyone, because the NAM still gets 1.3-1.5 qpf through the Balt/DC corridor,  but it looks relatively dry when you consider it's relative wet bias compared to the globals. 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Did you stay up the whole night? 

No need for panic from anyone, because the NAM still gets 1.3-1.5 qpf through the Balt/DC corridor,  but it looks relatively dry when you consider it's relative wet bias compared to the globals. 

Nah, I got like 3 hours of sleep...i think.  Was gonna go back to sleep.  I'm thinking the Euro just had a burp...hopefully.

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Did you stay up the whole night? 

No need for panic from anyone, because the NAM still gets 1.3-1.5 qpf through the Balt/DC corridor,  but it looks relatively dry when you consider it's relative wet bias compared to the globals. 

I'm probably not planning to sleep myself, unless the GFS turns out to be soul-crushing. Trend still looking good so far, with Euro an outlier

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Nah, I got like 3 hours of sleep...i think.  Was gonna go back to sleep.  I'm thinking the Euro just had a burp...hopefully.

Just started looking so I really have no thoughts on it. But I am not one to panic over one run irregardless of what model it is. And to be honest I am starting to feel comfortable where we stand.

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nah, I got like 3 hours of sleep...i think.  Was gonna go back to sleep.  I'm thinking the Euro just had a burp...hopefully.

Before I forget, wanted to thank you and the MODs. Though there is still some useless and repetitive posts this thread was a heck of a lot cleaner and easier reading then what we have seen over the last few days. And considering we had some good runs overnight I am sure you all had your hands full. So thanks again.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Before I forget, wanted to thank you and the MODs. Though there is still some useless and repetitive posts this thread was a heck of a lot cleaner and easier reading then what we have seen over the last few days. And considering we had some good runs overnight I am sure you all had your hands full. So thanks again.

Thanks...andI think with any of these threads, there is going to be some small amount of useless stuff that slips through...if you all could see the deleted/hidden posts vs what's here, you'd get a better picture of how much better this one is :lol:

To keep this on topic, the WPC discussion is pretty good

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

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