yuki neko Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Here's the 10:1 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro looks great. Live or die by the sword. Each model run is a new emotion. Someday I'll learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 There is another storm 2 on euro 2 days after this. Not sure what it gives us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I love it when they say crippling. WTF is wrong with these people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 With ratios, your welcome lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Let's see if kbuf moves that 12"-18" north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sharp cutoff on the latest nam, 1" line makes it to ksyr but starts to drop in Oswego county, looks like we are starting to meet in the middle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Still no phase on the 06z GFS unfortunately. Still a decent hit though with ratios and LE but nothing compared to the NAM! We're starting to enter it's wheelhouse now, so the models should start to come around to some sort of consensus today.Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Both SW'S have been sampled and it seems as though, as this happened, things got worse and I guess it's logical because more data was injected into the run so maybe they were all shocked except the Euro, lol.Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Even though the GFS looks like complete cap without a phase, it still manages to drop some appreciable snows, due mostly to LE and wraparound moisture.Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 06Z GFS jackpots DC, lol. I didn't even think they were in the game, wow! I also don't like the fact that the NAM is beginning to retreat the precip to our S&E so we could be seeing some convergence with the models and it doesn't bode well for us up here. WNY-SCNY are all still in the game, while Onondaga-Oswego Jefferson-you get the pic-are out of this one. That's my take from what I see. Congrats BGM BLIZZARD as I think you are in the sweetest position right now, unless of course if there is a NE wind which would downslope off the Skills which would, I think, limit accumulations but you would know more as you live there. Still a nailbiter, but slowly converging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Off to bed hopefully I wake to a good 12Z as all the pieces are on the playing field! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Weird looking snow map..Fulton is exactly 1 foot, which obviously would be fine by me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Few tidbits from kbuf A lingering inverted surface trough looks to alsoextend west of the low center inland across much of PA and NY. Wraparound Atlantic moisture and synoptic lift will work with a deepsnow growth zone to support widespread moderate to heavy snowfall.Tuesday night the storm center will shift north across the Gulf ofMaine then into the Canadian Maritimes through Wednesday while itscenter pressure fills some. Lingering wrap around Atlantic moisturewill continue to support widespread synoptic snow Tuesday night andWednesday with the synoptic moisture shifting away from our areaWednesday night. Lake enhanced snow bands can be found throughoutTuesday and Wednesday south of the lakes working in a hybrid fashionleading to some higher totals which models likely can not pick up onat this range Thehigher snow amounts would be found across the higher terrain andwithin any areas of lake enhancement. It might be interesting tonote that these forecast snow totals run a bit higher than the meanof the Top 15 CIPS Analogs but quite a bit lower than the mean ofmany of the SREF Plumes which are showing some sites with 15-25inches. This means there is still a good bit of shifting in ourofficial snow total forecast that is possible as future model runsattempt to converge on a closer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 06Z GFS jackpots DC, lol. I didn't even think they were in the game, wow! I also don't like the fact that the NAM is beginning to retreat the precip to our S&E so we could be seeing some convergence with the models and it doesn't bode well for us up here. WNY-SCNY are all still in the game, while Onondaga-Oswego Jefferson-you get the pic-are out of this one. That's my take from what I see. Congrats BGM BLIZZARD as I think you are in the sweetest position right now, unless of course if there is a NE wind which would downslope off the Skills which would, I think, limit accumulations but you would know more as you live there. Still a nailbiter, but slowly converging! Eh, idk. Nam unfortunately is still outside it's wheel house however good it looks. The 0z euro was uplifting but not liking what the GFS has been doing the last 2 runs with limited to no phasing. Down this way and points south and east we need a good hit on the front end from the developing coastal to get into some serious snow totals else we will come out on short end. I could see this area being in between maximas with poconos and catskills getting thumped from the coastal and areas up your way and into finger lakes getting the good wrap around enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Precip starts on the gfs at hr 48 and we see measurable precip up till hr 105 and what does it add up to , 1/10"? lol Give me a break.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So Sref just came out, mean of 1.23" at ksyr, the arw members have close to 2" while NMB members have 0.85.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So Sref just came out, mean of 1.23" at ksyr, the arw members have close to 2" while NMB members have 0.85.. SREF is a joke, they have an average of 22" for KBUF with a couple members of 50". Lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Pretty easy to tell the ARW members lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I don't know. This storm is very frustrating to forecast. Seems to me the heaviest snows are slipping off to our east. Friday's crippling snows on GFS are gone. Barely in it now with the NAM. This is probably going to be a 5 to 10 over 48 hours which is WWA worthy. Always tough with these Miller Bs for Central NY. Hope for best I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Mean was actually 1.37", yea i just try to eliminate the "highs" and "lows", gives u a ballpark figure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Roc sref screen shot. I'd take even the lower third. This IS very frustrating with lots of models a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'd go with 5-10" for most of upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Roc sref screen shot. I'd take even the lower third. This IS very frustrating with lots of models a bust. This is looking to be a bust for Toronto. We'll be lucky to see a dusting to 2". Very frustrating as it was looking so good for us as recently as 24 hours ago. It would be great if the euro verified, but hasn't it been overdone for much of this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Last night's 0z UK looked ok to me, could look even better with a tick west..But 24 hrs later still hanging out in extreme northern maine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Haha 09z SREF plumes have some members spitting out 50" for both BUF and ROC, lol it ain't happening from a coastal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Haha 09z SREF plumes have some members spitting out 50" for both BUF and ROC, lol it ain't happening from a coastal! Those members bring LP to Binghamton or Albany. Not happening. Latest NAM pretty Far East. We are losing all our support for big snow in WNY. Maybe euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 These further East solutions still offer the southern shore counties some hope on the backend. Long duration, very cold, and ample synoptic moisture. I think we get bailed out by Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yup and still snowing at hr 84.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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