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Upstate/Eastern New York

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I-90 may offer as a decent battle line in the early going as the 12z Euro shows. Sharp cuttoff to accums. I think this will end up being all or mostly rain south of 90, but still time to change a bit perhaps. Two things that tend to help greatly in early and late season snow storms is elevation and latitude. This looks to be no different. The further north you go the quicker and better chance that cold air filters in to get some snow out of this otherwise unfavorable pattern. 

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Euro does show some ice initially as colder air bleeds in, particularly near and south of 90, but surface temps are in the 31-32 range, so it would be a really marginal setup to get much in the way of ice accretion. I think this will be mostly a rain vs. snow issue.

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50 minutes ago, tim123 said:

How much snow in roc on that run?

Very sharp gradient to the accumulation output.

Using 10:1 ratio... shoreline is 10-14, City proper is 6" and the far south along Livingston Co line is 2-3".

Like Dave said though, good chance ratios end up less than 10:1. The Kuch ratio is not automatically greater than 10:1, however, it estimates the snowfall based on thermal profiles, so it will vary its estimates from place to place. The Kuch ratio estimates 6-7:1 in ROC area for this run, so that translates to 6-10" along shoreline, 4" City proper, and 1-2" in far south.

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Snowpack taking it on the chin today. Down to 12-15" on the ground and dropping fast. I'll probably be down to bare ground by weeks end. Crazy.

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Snow maps are deceiving, 850s on the euro are extremely borderline, not till hr 174-180 does the 850s go below freezing (-1c) but plenty of time for this trend south..

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Euro is just to warm for snow except  portions of NE NY state, plenty of precipitation (over 2")..Oh well lol Was just hoping for another 0.6" to get to 160"..

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9 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Thanks for correcting me on kuchera, I thought it was always a high ratio 20:1. We should always use it. No?

Taking into account the temp profiles, it offers at least a quick and dirty method of trying to apply reasonable ratios and is probably going to be more accurate than just straight up estimating 5:1, 10:1, 15:1, 20:1 etc. I'm sure it has some limitations in its assumptions, but so far what I've seen it print out for the last few storms seems to reasonably measure up with end results.

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Yeah this potential weekend threat is dying off fast and nothing else in the pipe line for snow threats through the end of the month. I'm ready to enjoy some moderating temps and sunshine too.

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At least March made up for Dec -Jan-Feb's debacle, lol, with 1 synoptic system. Their fun cause everyone on the forum is involved. As opposed to a LES event that's affecting a 15 mule swath from Fulton to Syracuse or The South towns of KBUF andbof course The Tug, so it made it more exciting as well as tracking it for a week or so was also exciting, lol!
I seriously hope we've seen the last of the accumulating stuff so we can move on to another season and put this one way behind us. Peace everyone and I'll see you all in the Fall sometime! Remember, we're only days away from the next snowstorm even if a it's a season or 2!

Ty

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

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