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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Euro has surface temps in the mid 20s for the storm, and comparing the Kuch and 10:1 ratio maps, it is projecting a 15:1 ratio verbatim with roughly 2-2.5 inches of QPF. Looking at some other H5 maps from Ewall, looks like a thread-the-needle job between getting a favorable track and thermal profiles. Looks like we get a HP dropping south and east from the north to keep this thing from tracking northeast and also to funnel down cold air just in time to get a snow bomb. 

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BGM...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next system to impact the region will come Friday afternoon. There are
large discrepancies within guidance on the track of the next system,
the timing, and the precip type. We will closely monitor this next
sfc low as it evolves.
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Albany...

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance of precipitation arrives on Friday as a warm front
approaches from the Ohio valley and mid Atlantic region. Thermal
profiles tricky to determine this far out, with a chance of snow to
start, then possibly changing to rain especially in valley
locations. Some significant differences then start to appear in the
GFS/ECMWF solutions for Friday night into the weekend. The GFS is
indicating the warm front will pass through allowing for a mild air
mass to build in for Saturday, while the parent storm tracks through
the eastern Great Lakes. However, the ECMWF is now showing a strong
1040 mb high migrating southeastward across Ontario/Quebec during
this time, which would result in the warm front possibly stalling
just to our south with the potential for waves of wintry precip
moving through. The position/strength of the high will have a large
influence in determining where the front sets up, so this is a very
low confidence for next weekend including temperatures and precip
types/amounts.
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On 3/15/2017 at 0:22 AM, Syrmax said:

I will!  In my ne.wx contest I went low from BOS to PHL and DCA  figuring the west trend was real...classic for a truly major storm and not some P.O.S. Benchmark runner that drops 8-12, which weenies inflate to 24".  Hell, most of them down there measure snow depth by the plow piles in the local Dollar store parking lot.  Including the red taggers.

Some measure every hour, ridiculous.

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