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Upstate/Eastern New York


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2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

All good. Thanks for the analysis.  No doubt we do much better in far WNY when those strong great lakes shortwaves rotate underneath us.  

I mean its still possible that with a very moist profile and lake enhancement buf claws there way to 12.  

The place where modeling difference has been the greatest was between hamilton toronto.  Phasing hurt those areas the most. .def benefitted syr and prob roc though. 

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1 minute ago, cny rider said:

I am directly under that band in central Otsego county.

It is snowing at an insane rate.

Trapped at work, so I can only eyeball but we have at least 18 inches on the ground and it looks like 3 inches per hour coming down.

I have only seen snowfall at this rate twice before in my life.

 

 

Sweet!  Get outside and run around in it like a crazy person!  Really impress your co-workers...

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6 minutes ago, phoenixny said:

Best guesses as to where that may be LEK? Thanks!

Most of the high res models have been targeting Madison to Onondaga Co. around 4-6pm....orienting N/S...then slowly pivoting and lifting NE by later this evening...My guess is I-81 or a bit west...then the pivot.  A lull for CNY for a bit later this eve.....the then lake should kick in for us as the winds continue to back...

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Most of the high res models have been targeting Madison to Onondaga Co. around 4-6pm....orienting N/S...then slowly pivoting and lifting NE by later this evening...My guess is I-81 or a bit west...then the pivot.  A lull for CNY for a bit later this eve.....the then lake should kick in for us as the winds continue to back...

Thanks. Impressive rates in that.

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Just now, phoenixny said:

Look at the oranges showing up with that D_ _ _ H Band. Check out doppler 9.

BGM was at ~20" at noonish...per reports and another mesoband rotating into them now (same one that pushed thru hear a couple hrs ago)...they are gonna have Yuge #s...

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I mean its still possible that with a very moist profile and lake enhancement buf claws there way to 12.  

The place where modeling difference has been the greatest was between hamilton toronto.  Phasing hurt those areas the most. .def benefitted syr and prob roc though. 

Are you getting rain from this all the way up in NL?

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Freaking Binghamton. What a winter for them. Sure is stark in comparison to Bufs heart break winter. I understand every bit of frustration coming out of Buf. It's unbelievable the way they've gotten shafted on things. Almost like a cosmic joke. 

Still snowing moderate to heavy in Roc. I'd guess 1/2-3/4"/hr. Ok

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Talk about heartbreak....Groton CT, my old stomping grounds.....38 and raining, they will probably push 50 degrees later...they woke up to a Blizzard warning for 12-20"...just like March 1993...

Did the Superstorm really go further west/warm than expected? I was under the impression that it was a well-modeled storm and expected to be a coastal hugger.

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1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

Did the Superstorm really go further west/warm than expected? I was under the impression that it was a well-modeled storm and expected to be a coastal hugger.

It was pretty well modeled...esp for 1993.  There was a mention of mixing as i recall but lets just say, getting 3-4" of snow and then rain and dryslot wasn't what was being advertised until basically almost Nowcast time.  

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That is horrific and I would be livid if a bust like that was to occur

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Talk about heartbreak....Groton CT, my old stomping grounds.....38 and raining, they will probably push 50 degrees later...they woke up to a Blizzard warning for 12-20"...just like March 1993...

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Just now, Syrmax said:

It was pretty well modeled...esp for 1993.  There was a mention of mixing as i recall but lets just say, getting 3-4" of snow and then rain and dryslot wasn't what was being advertised until basically almost Nowcast time.  

A very well modeled storm.  Some CT media outlets were pushing for a changeover (I was born and raised in Western CT).  Some went too far...I remember the night before a Fox weather guy saying "You heard it here first folks, 6" then a change to rain".  I finished with almost 18" and no change to rain (a few pellets, but a changeover back to snow when the weaker back edge pivoted through).  Groton was always a tough spot for snow though...one of the worst in New England.

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