March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah, its not like its going up the CT River Valley.  The goal posts are pretty narrow on the whole.

Like geese farts and stuff like that may push it a few miles one way or another.

I think a track near or over CHH is where this ends up.. and the 700 goes over my head to BOS or something close to that 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I just looked between the models...including the GFS...and there's about 75 miles worth of spread in track.

That's really nothing in the larger scale of computer weather models.  However, it impacts a huge population on this board so it seems to be much larger than it actually is.

Everything is well within the range of possibilities and aren't as far apart as people think they are.  Its just the sensible weather differences are huge for those inside that 75 mile zone, ha.

I hear you PF...my meaning only was that I would be inclined to believe the GFS at this close range...and that it's gotta have a clue at this close proximity.  And I too think the track it has is quite Reasonable.  

[codfishsnowman]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh I know it's gonna be crazy, but I'm wondering if it's still somewhat overdone. Like these are 3 hourly rates near an inch of QPF. I wonder if it ends up being more like 0.17 per hour stuff. I dunno, still got time to figure that out.

well that is huge for those of us now with mixing issues...it is no one's fault but shave some of that down, loose a few precious hours to mixing and it is a 6-10 inch thump which for just about all of sne is nice but nothing extraordinary

 

I am trying so hard to be positive but I am really getting worried. I never expected 18 plus but I thought 15 or so was very doable

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think a track near or over CHH is where this ends up.. and the 700 goes over my head to BOS or something close to that 

All this bruhaha over 7H ignores the fact 80% of the precip is front end, so maybe 2-4 inches more in a deform band. I mean even ss 93 had a hellacious slot and that 7h was over PA. JP fetishers are worried the rest of us can deal with it

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM looks slightly west of 00z...pretty close, but prob canal track instead of like HYA or something.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The GFS would be okay here I think.... nothing insane but probably a good 8-10

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

GGEM is no help... looks like all we have here is the GFS 

[OceanStWx]

All those model ticks overnight and not one "Congrats Dendrite!"

It's interesting that the GFS is so sloped with the low. Surface over ACK, 850 mb over or just NW of the Canal, 700 mb way NW through the interior. But that suggests strengthening through the area, as it hasn't stacked and occluded yet.

[J Paul Gordon]

The mood in here is like Superbowl night.... depending on who you are it is either the end of the first quarter or overtime... Pollyanna's vs Debbie Downers. I'm putting my money on the Pollyannas.

OK.... Personally, with all my meteorological ignorance taken into account, I think we have had a consistent series of runs that take SL somewhere between the canal and the elbow of the Cape. Don't think it will go west of Buzzards Bay-->Scituate track or east of ACK. 

Rain/snow line PVD to just south of BOS (Scituate?), taint Middletown CT -->SE ORH county--> Framingham/Natick

 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM looks slightly west of 00z...pretty close, but prob canal track instead of like HYA or something.

Canal looks like.  I think that's the forecast personally.

 

[NeonPeon]

Ok, I've given up on this one.  Who cares whether it snows 3 or 6 inches before it pours.

Interior deserves a great one.  I'd be loving this as a kid in upstate NY, and I'd have more fun with it anyway.  Hope it buries you all up to your whale tails.

[powderfreak]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

All those model ticks overnight and not one "Congrats Dendrite!"

It's interesting that the GFS is so sloped with the low. Surface over ACK, 850 mb over or just NW of the Canal, 700 mb way NW through the interior. But that suggests strengthening through the area, as it hasn't stacked and occluded yet.

Yeah that's why I was thinking the GFS was too low with QPF to the north and west.  Its very tilted with height.

 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

GGEM is no help... looks like all we have here is the GFS 

Canal track would work.  If that's what it shows.

 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

GGEM is no help... looks like all we have here is the GFS 

Given how amped the RGEM was, not surprised. I just want 6" at this point..but it's like pulling teeth to get these models to fully oblige. Gotta pull it off in a 2-4 hour period

[MarkO]

Yeah, I think our goalposts are on each side of the cape. 

[eyewall]

I can't seem to get the weatherbell maps to work for the GFS.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

Canal track would work.  If that's what it shows.

 

 

It does mix/flip BOS and prob out to 128, but it dumps way over an inch of qpf before that happens.

[weathafella]

Huge front ender on CMC-yuge!

[CoastalWx]

Greetings from TX, so it looks like I can avoid the snake pit.  Congrats interior for once.

[BRSno]

I'll wait for the EURO before I throw in the towel for a big impact, either way I'll take my March snow, taint/rain and all. 

[J Paul Gordon]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It does mix/flip BOS and prob out to 128, but it dumps way over an inch of qpf before that happens.

OK Will, you're the met who knows the peculiarities of the area. Think it will taint/flip as far west as ORH? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Greetings from TX, so it looks like I can avoid the snake pit.  Congrats interior for once.

Nice, we can now have the last minute tick back SE now that you have landed at DFW. DFW takes no prisoners.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Given how amped the RGEM was, not surprised. I just want 6" at this point..but it's like pulling teeth to get these models to fully oblige. Gotta pull it off in a 2-4 hour period

Yeah I guess given the setup... anything can still happen... an additional 1-2 hours of snow could yield another 4-6 or something.

Either way.... this is the first storm that has really took a nosedive down here in quite some time. We've gone from a potentially epic Tuesday snow event..... to basically hoping for a 3-5 hours dump in the morning.

At this point 3" or 10" wouldn't surprise me

[Whineminster]

36 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You will be fine

We won't be though.  I'll be teetering on the railing on the 190 bridge over the stillwater river.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

OK Will, you're the met who knows the peculiarities of the area. Think it will taint/flip as far west as ORH? 

I wouldn't think it matters much if it does....if ORH flips/mixes, it's probably going to be after basically all the consequential precip is done.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, BRSno said:

I'll wait for the EURO before I throw in the towel for a big impact, either way I'll take my March snow, taint/rain and all. 

Should still be big impact either way 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Nice, we can now have the last minute tick back SE now that you have landed at DFW. DFW takes no prisoners.

I was surprised and disappointed at the west nudge, but hopefully an east nudge for you guys and home.

[dryslot]

Went from the West posters to the East ones

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

We won't be though.  I'll be teetering on the railing on the 190 bridge over the stillwater river.

Head first is the only way to go.  Sayonara.

[J Paul Gordon]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn't think it matters much if it does....if ORH flips/mixes, it's probably going to be after basically all the consequential precip is done.

so possible snizzle at the end with temps @ 32F