March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wait, thats a bad run nowadays?

The low almost goes over boston, there is plenty of mixing and changing over in E SE MA that is surely counting IP as snow.

[MarkO]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do not fear precip type issues.

Still?

[8611Blizz]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wait, thats a bad run nowadays?

If I get the 16" on that or even crack 12" and 495 see's 22" that's fine by me.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Its an over correction a bit. The euro does this alot lately. it did it with the clipper lol. 

I've been suspicious of the little front runner vort ahead of the southern stream all during this 00z suite. It's a nuanced detail that I don't have any confidence in staying consistent. It's def possible things went a little overboard with it. It was around 36 hours before the Jan 2015 blizzard we saw several over amped solutions before things came back east a little (well except the euro in that storm). 

As usual I wouldn't overreact to one suite...we see over-trends fairly regularly. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

The low almost goes over boston, there is plenty of mixing and changing over in E SE MA that is surely counting IP as snow.

Where does the h7 track? epa se ny wct hfd snh? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wait, thats a bad run nowadays?

No, that isn't....that must be bc of low level convergence bc the mid levels were rough.

H7 goes from Berkshires to MHT

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Still?

Still....even here, we'd see a bit of sleet, but it would cost like 2"...NBD.

Just need to get the moisture. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've been suspicious of the little front runner vort ahead of the southern stream all during this 00z suite. It's a nuanced detail that I don't have any confidence in staying consistent. It's def possible things went a little overboard with it. It was around 36 hours before the Jan 2015 blizzard we saw several over amped solutions before things came back east a little (well except the euro in that storm). 

As usual I wouldn't overreact to one suite...we see over-trends fairly regularly. 

I'd rather take my chances with this....the mid level ship has sailed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, that isn't....that must be bc of low level convergence bc the mid levels were rough.

H7 goes from Berkshires to MHT

Ah, ok. Yea id like that to sink a bit myself lol. Another day to pin this down. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, this run would have big-time power implications in my zone.....most of that is wet snow.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, this run would have big-time power implications in my zone.....most of that is wet snow.

Another daytime storm too. We have been getting very lucky with those the past 3 years or so, almost every big storm has been during the day (for the most part). Getting 3-6" per hour just isnt the same when its dark outside.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty sharp gradient near Scott...

[wxsniss]

Gnite fellas.

Not the reassurance I wanted before sleep for eastern SNE folks. Basically the foreign models (RGEM / UK / Euro) vs. American models (NAM / GFS), and I am not at all confident in the latter at this point, especially that this has been my fear for days. Euro OP is now well west of ensemble mean which surprised me. The handling of the pieces of vorticity as they emerge off Virginia is complex and likely to fluctuate and there's still time to correct back east. Regardless, even in worst case scenarios from models tonight, most of eastern SNE northwest of PYM including Boston metro should still make 10-14 inches.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Gnite fellas.

Not the reassurance I wanted before sleep for eastern SNE folks. Basically the foreign models (RGEM / UK / Euro) vs. American models (NAM / GFS), and I am not at all confident in the latter at this point, especially that this has been my fear for days. Euro OP is now well west of ensemble mean which surprised me. The handling of the pieces of vorticity as they emerge off Virginia is complex and likely to fluctuate and there's still time to correct back east. Regardless, even in worst case scenarios from models tonight, most of eastern SNE northwest of PYM including Boston metro should still make 10-14 inches.

The NAM takes the Low over the canal similar to the foreign models, its really GFS vs. all.

[CT Rain]

That 700 hpa low track is ugly... NY/Berks special there.

Still a nice firehose at the beginning which should be good for some fun prior to the dry slot.

[centralmass]

For all of us that read and hardly post, thanks for all of the analysis, links and visuals over the last handful of days, everyone. Appreciate it.

Living directly under the 23 in that euro snow map all but guarantees to to be wrong lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That 700 hpa low track is ugly... NY/Berks special there.

Still a nice firehose at the beginning which should be good for some fun prior to the dry slot.

I think that clown map is overdone for central and eastern MA.

[tim123]

What about winds on euro for Western ny?

[CT Rain]

The RPM is awfully far west

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that clown map is overdone for central and eastern MA.

Yes

And this is still more likely to trend a bit more west than reverse course.

All else being equal, models are horrible w latent heat release pumping ridge and that will keep wind at the back of the western trend last 24 hours imo.

Catskills to Savoy to S VT  annihilation incoming.

I anticipate a mix into merrimack valley as well as a power threat from the initial slug. Amounts may struggle to surpass a foot SE of  BDL to MHT line.

 

[ajisai]

Trends haven't been that good for E MA. Gonna expect 10". 

[codfishsnowman]

getting ugly quickly

[TheSnowman]

$675 Extra or so to do this.  

And a dangerous connection in London because it's 2 different airlines.  

I woke up and was going to CRACK UP and head to an Insane Asylum if I didn't come in.  If My House looks to be 15" or under, Tell me where I need to go.  I'll get a hotel.  I'm not spending that kind of money as a poor musician to see 14" and slop.  

[tim123]

Is rpm 10 to 1 ratios

[TheSnowman]

And the first comment that is posted before mine is "This is getting ugly quickly."  

Miss My luck honestly that bad?  Really?  Truly?  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

35 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

And the first comment that is posted before mine is "This is getting ugly quickly."  

Miss My luck honestly that bad?  Really?  Truly?  

Unless Euro and RGEM and UKIE move back east and se w 7H low you should prepare to go toward E slope of N Berks or perhaps SVT in a area that does well on E inflow.

I would prepare to Travel, you didnt come back to see this flip to rain in N RI. 

I would ask Will where to go out there but you dont wanna be downsloping, i also like Florida Mass as well as Savoy Mass as well FTW.

I am considering chasing and staying here at 2k in N Berks

http://www.whitcombsummitretreat.net/

[CT Valley Snowman]

I still think HVN/TOL/ORH points NW is  12-24  lolis to 30 far NW CT and Berks.  Still could shift a bit either way hopefully the dramatic moves have already occured.

[CT Valley Snowman]

EPS mean is now over MVY with a few members into SE CT but still looks like the biggest cluster is just east of the mean. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Loaded with moisture. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just checked rates and availability for FL mass whitcomb hotel at 2K. Work in Nashua till 7pm then May do the drive west to deform heaven. Prepared to stay till Wed am.