March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[WinterWolf]

Ya weve made it this far..let's see what the Goofus shows..then bed!!

[weathafella]

Appears GFS is caving to consensu.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Seems like the southern vort is a bit slower and SW a bit at 30, perhaps it helps it slow down and not jump out to the east as quickly this run. Just hypothesizing at this point.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya weve made it this far..let's see what the Goofus shows..then bed!!

it will come west it has to last run was over the BM. Question is how far

[weathafella]

992 @38/72.5 39 hour.

[dryslot]

It will be west from 18z Looks to be a few ticks that way.

[weathafella]

Crushed-everyone!

[CT Valley Snowman]

Certainly looks a bit west and closer to the Delmarva at 36.

[SnowHole413]

It's got a clue finally it looks

[ORH_wxman]

Southern stream is dragging its heals a bit like the NAM was...but the northern stream is faster so it should offset at minimum...I expect a bit closer run than 18z.

[weathafella]

BM track .

[HIPPYVALLEY]

GFS crushing WNE.  

[Hoth]

Gebus at hr 42. What a crushjob.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

BM track .

Maybe just inside?   Doesn't matter, big regional hit. 

[weathafella]

Much slower.  Crushes just about 100% of SNE.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weathafella said:

Much slower.  Crushes just about 100% of SNE.

NICE!

[dryslot]

983mb 42/68

[CT Valley Snowman]

Nice improvement towards consensus.  Still offshore but looked closer. Hopefully this nudges perhaps a bit more west and the furthest west models  shrink back east a bit to keep the most amount of people happy but it's pretty darn good as is.

[dryslot]

0z GFS moved a few tics NW but still not quite there yet.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

0z GFS moved a few tics NW but still not quite there yet.

Another 3 cycles and it probably will be.  Sad.

[weathafella]

Now for real-good night.

[snowgeek]

Still meh for here but much better. Small steps. 

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

Another 3 cycles and it probably will be.  Sad.

It is sad really, Its on an island

[bboughton]

Idk it's wavered a bit but this solution looks a lot like what GFS was saying a few days ago. I feel like the consensus now is what GFS was showing on Wednesday. 

[weathafella]

Just now, bboughton said:

Idk it's wavered a bit but this solution looks a lot like what GFS was saying a few days ago. I feel like the consensus now is what GFS was showing on Wednesday. 

Good point.  But the model that closer in makes it unreliable inside 6 days...at least for these types of systems.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z GFS moved a few tics NW but still not quite there yet.

 Everything else will end up "there"  and GFS will show up late to the picnic but with dessert. 

I still have that CCC track (or 10mi +/-) for the SLP kind of etched in my psyche.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Now for real-good night.

We all know you're staying up for the GGEM in about 10 minutes.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Still meh for here but much better. Small steps. 

You are getting 12"+.     What is your meh' scale.  Lol.

[dryslot]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Everything else will end up "there"  and GFS will show up late to the picnic but with dessert. 

I still have that CCC track (or 10mi +/-) for the SLP kind of etched in my psyche.

Yeah, Nothing has changed my mind that i have seen tonight, We may see some subtle shifts one way or the other the next couple cycles outside of the GFS but its noise now.

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It is sad really, Its on an island

Just like in '13.