March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unless this slows it's 12-20 with a weenie band maybe near 24"

It's pretty juiced so I could see a 2/5/01 phenomenon where there's a lot of 20-24"+ despite a 12 hour duration. This one actually will prob be a bit longer than that storm. But it's hard to actually forecast that until we are closer. I could easily see 12-18"

[weathafella]

GEFS=GFS.  Is it time to toss ensembles yet?

[weatherwiz]

From the 12z GFS for Waterbury, CT.  Think it will be tough to get really impressive totals here in CT (at least for central/western parts of the state).  Maybe like a 6-10'' range or something? 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's pretty juiced so I could see a 2/5/01 phenomenon where there's a lot of 20-24"+ despite a 12 hour duration. This one actually will prob be a bit longer than that storm. But it's hard to actually forecast that until we are closer. I could easily see 12-18"

The band itself may extend a ways agree. I guess I don't see this as a large 18--24" with lollis to 30. 

[moneypitmike]

It's a bummer that the stall idea seems to have slipped away.  A strong SECS bordering on HECS pending EC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's pretty juiced so I could see a 2/5/01 phenomenon where there's a lot of 20-24"+ despite a 12 hour duration. This one actually will prob be a bit longer than that storm. But it's hard to actually forecast that until we are closer. I could easily see 12-18"

Exactly.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

From the 12z GFS for Waterbury, CT.  Think it will be tough to get really impressive totals here in CT (at least for central/western parts of the state).  Maybe like a 6-10'' range or something? 

6-10"?

[Ginx snewx]

TIP with a 30 to 50 line, huh

 Another crazy windy day, seems to be a  persistence issue. OT I didn't realize +100k still without power in ROCHESTER area from the wind storm this week.  Yikes in this cold.

Consensus track building, speed, duration differences.  By the way I watched the GFS come in and then read here. The PBP guessing gets hilarious when doing that. RUNNAWAYICEBERG presser tomorrow sometime in the afternoon.  If I have TIP type headlines look out  lol

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea...30-50" is a bit much lol

[Whineminster]

Meh, a 12" general storm 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If only it hadn't been written 16 years ago John.

Yeah I get it - but I still think there is some similarity there, jokes aside.

I think this thing is trying to trend toward an upper tier system and I read WPC current discussion ...and it's right up there anyway - 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Since James was weenie-tagged, has he hacked into HPC in order to post '78 references?

 

I don't think we've seen 36" amounts time and time again......

Another one bites the dust...

[Ginx snewx]

Hoth with a gamer, lol I knew

[Typhoon Tip]

I wasn't saying 30-50" would be pervasive...

Like in 1978, there was a small region in N RI that cleared 40" and I think with a stalling southern wave that gets a huge boost by capturing 500 mb deep cold/instability, I could see small pockets doing something similar. 

20-30" is probably what I could go for in my max zone -

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

6-10"?

For like western and central CT.  That isn't my forecast (will do one tomorrow evening when details are a bit clearer) but I think there are way too many red flags (back this way at least) to expect widespread 12''+ here across the state (perhaps exception being eastern part out near RI border)

[Typhoon Tip]

OT ...but the 12z GFS is pretty amusing for a week from Monday !

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

6-10"?

He's drunk

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wasn't saying 30-50" would be pervasive...

Like in 1978, there was a small region in N RI that cleared 40" and I think with a stalling southern wave that gets a huge boost by capturing 500 mb deep cold/instability, I could see small pockets doing something similar. 

20-30" is probably what I could go for in my max zone -

Agree.

We would need this to capture sooner and slow for more...

[WeatherWilly]

How many times have we seen a slow mover turn into a zippy skippy as we get closer to the event.........stall jobs are rare to say the least in this era so not surprised. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For like western and central CT.  That isn't my forecast (will do one tomorrow evening when details are a bit clearer) but I think there are way too many red flags (back this way at least) to expect widespread 12''+ here across the state (perhaps exception being eastern part out near RI border)

W CT will see great banding.

12-20".

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wasn't saying 30-50" would be pervasive...

Like in 1978, there was a small region in N RI that cleared 40" and I think with a stalling southern wave that gets a huge boost by capturing 500 mb deep cold/instability, I could see small pockets doing something similar. 

20-30" is probably what I could go for in my max zone -

March 2001 dropped a small 40"-spot in se NH.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For like western and central CT.  That isn't my forecast (will do one tomorrow evening when details are a bit clearer) but I think there are way too many red flags (back this way at least) to expect widespread 12''+ here across the state (perhaps exception being eastern part out near RI border)

Put down the 6 footer Wiz. A beast is coming for everyone. It's gonn git cha

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

W CT will see great banding.

12-20".

If we get into the banding I completely agree. Just not sold as to whether that will happen here or not.   IDK...to get that much here there's a lot more I would like to see in place. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OT ...but the 12z GFS is pretty amusing for a week from Monday !

Think I may enjoy my week in Maine?

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

We would need this to capture sooner and slow for more...

I may be reading in too deeply but "sounds" like there's some reticence to take the Euro run seriously - or, an aspect about it that is either being ignore or is not seen (either way) being that it literally stalled its low between ISP and like 40 MI E of PSM for 24 hours ...during which there are pounding QPF mechanics in two centroid regions:

NYC and SE NH...

Now, to echo those earlier sentiments ... I still see that as correctable toward a singular max region that is somewhat more prolific.  This thing is close enough to doing so and cannot be ruled out as doing so - the implications of which are hugely impactful. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think I may enjoy my week in Maine?

You always come bringing the goods..........lol

[moneypitmike]

I was in Westfield in 2001 when we got the 23-24" in 9 hours, so I've experienced the hefty amounts in short duration storms.  Obviously, it's much easier to accomplish with one that plods along.  This will certainly be longer than that one, but not by hours and hours.

[OceanStWx]

Ensembles seem most sensitive to the Arctic shortwave that is set to drop into the northern stream. It's crossing into the Canadian Prairies now.

There is only one raob station in the area, but at 12z the Euro was higher heights with it vs. the GFS. Higher heights (i.e. weaker wave) had a tendency towards a more south and east surface low. The same was true of the GEFS, which probably explains the slightly further east low track (though the Euro hooks it in harder towards the end) since the GFS had a deeper shortwave in Canada.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I may be reading in too deeply but "sounds" like there's some reticence to take the Euro run seriously - or, an aspect about it that is either being ignore or is not seen (either way) being that it literally stalled its low between ISP and like 40 MI E of PSM for 24 hours ...during which there are pounding QPF mechanics in two centroid regions:

NYC and SE NH...

Now, to echo those earlier sentiments ... I still see that as correctable toward a singular max region that is somewhat more prolific.  This thing is close enough to doing so and cannot be ruled out as doing so - the implications of which are hugely impactful. 

I get it....I just said to Scott that someone, maybe not sne, will see 3'.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get it....I just said to Scott that someone, maybe not sne, will see 3'.

Congrats Dendrite.