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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion


powderfreak

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Just now, Greg said:

I think the weather people in Taunton are not buying the NAM solution not quite yet.  Their discussion indicates the 500 mb flow doesn't support a big coastal hugger.  They believe a Nantucket to in-between Benchmark track is likely.

NAM actually is close to that track at 18z.

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BTV Discussion makes mention of Champlain Valley channeling on Wed so that local effect would help us. The NAM still has us just under 20 inches so I wouldn't say we are out of it but a less favorable track this go around.

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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV Discussion makes mention of Champlain Valley channeling on Wed so that local effect would help us. The NAM still has us just under 20 inches so I wouldn't say we are out of it but a less favorable track this go around.

This run was better than 12z for you, lol.

Nice south to north line from CT to VT of similar totals.

 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

This run was better than 12z for you, lol.

nam_3hr_snow_acc_neng_22_zpssmzqs2p6.png

Alright I am tired. I was looking at the wrong damn thing LOL. Anyway CPV convergence put us over the top last time. That is something to consider this go around. 

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5 minutes ago, Greg said:

Oh, I know. Just indicating that even the Nam is now starting to see the slightly east shift, although for the Nam it is very stubborn to do so.

At hr 51 on 18z, the last 4 runs have been within about 20 miles of each other.  I don't expect any serious deviations from that from this point on.

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV Discussion makes mention of Champlain Valley channeling on Wed so that local effect would help us. The NAM still has us just under 20 inches so I wouldn't say we are out of it but a less favorable track this go around.

There is definitely some room to "make up some ground" on the backside on N/NW flow for you guys and the western slopes in VT and even for me down here in SVT.

You know how quickly that stuff can pile up, doesn't take much QPF.

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Just now, eyewall said:

Alright I am tired. I was looking at the wrong damn thing LOL. Anyway CPV convergence put us over the top last time. That is something to consider this go around. 

The Champlain Valley convergence will be textbook with these tracks and evolution.  You'll be ripping snow long after everyone else has stopped.
 

Nice 12-19" on the NAM for VT. 

nam_3hr_snow_acc_neng_22_zpspvj9ssug.png

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What a crushing hit on the new NAM (current ParaNAM).

The thing just stalls and dumps cyclonic flow up north.  Probably a crazy backside upslope snowstorm with ratios, it'd be a lot bigger than this with that look.

You won't see that often... 16" at TAN and 16" at BTV for a forecast model.

March12NAMpara_zpsh5iiicly.png

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2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Lol 3' from Island Pond through Pittsburg to Rangeley. If that were to verify, I would get my sled registered in NH & ME and take a trip. Not that it wouldn't be worthwhile after this anyway. 

Its still real decent riding up there, This is just icing on the cake.

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