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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
Just now, weatherwiz said:

The further east solutions could have some validity.  The NAO will be becoming more positive as the storm arrives which could open up the window for a more easterly track as opposed to westerly...unless this thing becomes really amped and tugs it further west.  Sort of surprised at OKX's snow map for southern CT at this stage 

and at least one or two of the really bright mets on here mentioned that several days ago both here and nyc

it is likely gonna be east more and the soundings you showed earlier with the low rh will verify too

I wonder if there is an algorithm for models to show monster solutions in the mid range so the media can blow it up for ratings, wouldn't surprise me

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Just now, codfishsnowman said:

and at least one or two of the really bright mets on here mentioned that several days ago both here and nyc

it is likely gonna be east more and the soundings you showed earlier with the low rh will verify too

I wonder if there is an algorithm for models to show monster solutions in the mid range so the media can blow it up for ratings, wouldn't surprise me

Someone actually just did a presentation at the Northeast Storm Conference about trend of NAO as storms ride up the coast (the study dealt more with extra-topical systems but it's still the same) and when the NAO was becoming increasingly positive the consensus was for a track further east as opposed to west.  

At least down this way I am definitely worried about dry air and also subsidence.  One thing I don't know how to interpret though is what happens when you have vigorous lift at say 700mb but strong subsidence at 850mb...what wins out?  This is what I'm looking at for latest bufkit profile for Waterbury.  Does the subsidence only become an issue if its in the SGZ?

Amwx%20post%20wtby%20bufkit_zpsevvcohfj.

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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15 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

What I noticed is the OP is on the NE envelope of the ensembles. 

Interesting to see both the GFS and ECM ops on the east side of their ensembles.  Normally its the other way around as the mean is often skewed east by a handful of much weaker and southeast ensemble members. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting to see both the GFS and ECM ops on the east side of their ensembles.  Normally its the other way around as the mean is often skewed east by a handful of much weaker and southeast ensemble members. 

With that being said, maybe the op runs are the weaker members that are east?  And the rest of the ensemble members are sensing the better phase when the pieces are fully sampled, thus why the majority of them are west??   Just a thought.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Someone actually just did a presentation at the Northeast Storm Conference about trend of NAO as storms ride up the coast (the study dealt more with extra-topical systems but it's still the same) and when the NAO was becoming increasingly positive the consensus was for a track further east as opposed to west.  

At least down this way I am definitely worried about dry air and also subsidence.  One thing I don't know how to interpret though is what happens when you have vigorous lift at say 700mb but strong subsidence at 850mb...what wins out?  This is what I'm looking at for latest bufkit profile for Waterbury.  Does the subsidence only become an issue if its in the SGZ?

Amwx%20post%20wtby%20bufkit_zpsevvcohfj.

 

Oh that mid-level lift will more than over-rule that lower level subsidence.

What are the winds doing during that time, do you have some terrain or something around?  Even subtle?  That looks like some crazy mid-level fronto forcing with some weak low level subsidence, almost like I see around the mountains at times if there's some low level downslope or something happening underneath the crazy mid-level lift.

As long you are well saturated in the snow growth region with that lift, it'll be fine.  Maybe it causes smaller flakes or something if the arms of dendrites evaporate a bit in the low levels.

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dryslot

dryslot

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting to see both the GFS and ECM ops on the east side of their ensembles.  Normally its the other way around as the mean is often skewed east by a handful of much weaker and southeast ensemble members. 

That's a flag to me that the OP runs are to far to the east.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

With that being said, maybe the op runs are the weaker members that are east?  And the rest of the ensemble members are sensing the better phase when the pieces are fully sampled, thus why the majority of them are west??   Just a thought.  

Grasping just a tad

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

With that being said, maybe the op runs are the weaker members that are east?  And the rest of the ensemble members are sensing the better phase when the pieces are fully sampled, thus why the majority of them are west??   Just a thought.  

I'm not sure what type of initialization differences there are between the OPs and their Ensembles.  I was wondering if the Operational models are seeing something that the coarser ensembles aren't catching on to.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Grasping just a tad

Wasn't trying to grasp at all..was just asking a question.   The ensembles are perturbed with different variations no?   So that was my reasoning.   I'd rather you enlighten us with a better answer than saying I'm grasping lol. 

 

Im thrilled that we are entertaining the possibilities of a major accumulating snowfall...if I get 10 inches  or 20 inches it's all good imo!!  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Just now, dryslot said:

I don't know why some are stressing so much with this much time left.

Exactly, its a lock for the majority of this forum to see a significant snowfall. 

Like I said earlier, BDL-ORH-LEW and points east should put their feet up and light up a big fatty, boss style.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh that mid-level lift will more than over-rule that lower level subsidence.

What are the winds doing during that time, do you have some terrain or something around?  Even subtle?  That looks like some crazy mid-level fronto forcing with some weak low level subsidence, almost like I see around the mountains at times if there's some low level downslope or something happening underneath the crazy mid-level lift.

As long you are well saturated in the snow growth region with that lift, it'll be fine.  Maybe it causes smaller flakes or something if the arms of dendrites evaporate a bit in the low levels.

No terrain really although Waterbury is a bit higher in elevation than some surrounding cities.  

What I was thinking was that subsidence would reduce the intensity of the snow.  

As far as moisture is concerned, 18z did increase RH a bit in the SGZ but it's not great really.  A look at soundings show a ton of dry air above 20-25K

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dryslot

dryslot

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Exactly, its a lock for the majority of this forum to see a significant snowfall. 

Like I said earlier, BDL-ORH-LEW and points east should put their feet up and light up a big fatty, boss style.

I have them up and sipping a cocktail, Would have to make a trip to the shed for the fatty but its 3°F here.......lol

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wasn't trying to grasp at all..was just asking a question.   The ensembles are perturbed with different variations no?   So that was my reasoning.   I'd rather you enlighten us with a better answer than saying I'm grasping lol. 

 

Im thrilled that we are entertaining the possibilities of a major accumulating snowfall...if I get 10 inches  or 20 inches it's all good imo!!  

The ensembles don't have any better sampling than the OP.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Exactly, its a lock for the majority of this forum to see a significant snowfall. 

Like I said earlier, BDL-ORH-LEW and points east should put their feet up and light up a big fatty, boss style.

Can you please stop, I'm already gun shy and paranoid about WNE being the forgotten step child in some new, coast for the most, regime.

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