March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks a bit more n stream...more interaction.

[JC-CT]

The surface reflection is actually west of 12z, even though it was clearly more progressive

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think this will end up a touch east, all things considered.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

The surface reflection is actually west of 12z, even though it was clearly more progressive

Tough call...some conflicting signals.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Loving this look so far.

[CT Valley Snowman]

A tad west at 60

 

[dryslot]

Looks a tic east of the 12z run so far hr 69

[JC-CT]

It's leaking east

[40/70 Benchmark]

PNA ridge is a hair better.

[CoastalWx]

Might even be a tad slower..but I like the look.

[wxsniss]

Wow 18z GFS says maybe 12z Euro was onto something... Shift east, huge hit for SNE

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Might even be a tad slower..but I like the look.

Trough is more progressive, but there is better stream interaction.

[mreaves]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would have boosted Cape totals.

Someone there wants to screw with James 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Deff slower and tucked early. Hope it goes bananas with the ccb. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Slightly deeper and slower...makes sense due to increasce in interaction

[Damage In Tolland]

Maine issues WSW before BOX

[40/70 Benchmark]

Better phase

[OceanStWx]

Watch the soundings tonight with the northern stream shortwave. If it comes in deeper than modeled, the GEFS should shift north and slower.

[BRSno]

Wow, yes please.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Maine issues WSW before BOX

Box is probably wondering what the f everyone's smokin'

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maine issues WSW before BOX

They're issuing a watch, but it won't matter anyway because the wind advisory trumps a watch. 

[OceanStWx]

CTZ002>004-MAZ005>007-010>014-017-022>024-026-RIZ001>005-008-122145-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Northern Bristol MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Nantucket MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Block Island RI-
443 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, northern Rhode
Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

They're issuing a watch, but it won't matter anyway because the wind advisory trumps a watch. 

I know/knew this ...but I thought my comment was awesome - ha

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Watch the soundings tonight with the northern stream shortwave. If it comes in deeper than modeled, the GEFS should shift north and slower.

It seems like that s/w causes a shift in models...but yeah...as that gets better sampled...it could be one of those classic model shifts again to west or slower. We've seen it before.

[Hoth]

That just gives me that good old fashioned romantic feeling...No complaints with that run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Deeper, and further east...should crush e MA.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

yea, it collapses the ccb but i like the elongated look at h5. Looking at surface now you can see it helps linger ull snows into wed. 

[wxsniss]

Yeah and OKX put up Blizzard watches for NYC... why the rush, and big pieces of guidance raising some questions...

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It seems like that s/w causes a shift in models...but yeah...as that gets better sampled...it could be one of those classic model shifts again to west or slower. We've seen it before.

You definitely have competing signals. The models love the southern streamers and their convection, but the models also get poor information about the northern stream and they can often come in stronger later in the game.

[rnaude241]

That run should but won't satisfy everyone on the board. Wow