March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[Hoth]

i'll take the 959 member south of Nantucket please.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Those ensembles are gorgeous. Question: when do we start turning away from them and focusing more on the op runs? Tonight?

Within 48 hours of start time of the event.  So I'd say around 12z Sunday

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

 

That's almost all of them at 78h. What does 84 look like as that was the map I was using. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That's almost all of them at 78h. What does 84 look like as that was the map I was using. 

Don't know, trueweather posted that on their twitter feed

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the meat of this storm is going to be 15 hours or less...we don't really have a big stall. It's possible we could buy like 3-6 hours of we get that lead shortwave to hook just at the right time. But that's not something I'd count on just yet. 

 

 We could get Tip's orange sunset snow for like the next 24 hours after that though as the main ULL to the west finally passes under us. 

haha so that would be a sunset/sunrise/sunset special.  I'd actually like to see that!

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Good point so this shouldn't be the 15 hr kind of quick hit the 12z GFS was showing,.

Well it's a positive trend that should help to offset the negative, progressive trend. All I'm saying is a graze or ots solution for New England is unlikely. 

[dryslot]

I think we can toss that 12z OP Euro run.

[Damage In Tolland]

Those ULL going under LI tend to overperform. Could drop another 3-6" Wed

[Connecticut Appleman]

How is the ensemble mean computed as there appears to be a heavy skewing on the western side of the mean?  I don't see a lot of members east to pull the mean so far east.  Is there a weighting of some members heavier than others?  Just a curiosity.  Thanks.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

How is the ensemble mean computed as there appears to be a heavy skewing on the western side of the mean?  I don't see a lot of members east to pull the mean so far east.  Is there a weighting of some members heavier than others?  Just a curiosity.  Thanks.

There are four that are like out by bermuda at 78

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Don't know, trueweather posted that on their twitter feed

Well anyways. Either way you slice it, the OP run doesn't have very good ensemble support. Always a red flag...esp in this day and age when the ensembles seem to mimic the OP more. 

[Ginx snewx]

Doctor Jeremiah 

[Connecticut Appleman]

Just now, JC-CT said:

There are four that are like out by bermuda at 78

Thanks - I did not see them, but that would do it!

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well anyways. Either way you slice it, the OP run doesn't have very good ensemble support. Always a red flag...esp in this day and age when the ensembles seem to mimic the OP more. 

and this season the highest accuracy rating has been for the EPS hasn't it?  Beyond any other ensembles or OP

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Doctor Jeremiah 

I'm not greedy, that will work.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Doctor Jeremiah 

Thanks Steve!  Solid.

[SouthCoastMA]

Let's lock that in. With that airmass, even a track just outside the elbow is just fine 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

 

Nice man. Strong eps signal for a sne crush job. Like 3/4 ens members may agree with OP. Ill play my percentages here and lay down a dime and make a good living off the return.

[bboughton]

53 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Congrats ATlantic City

 

Also, not all the US is on DST.  Part of Indiana and other areas as well.

 

 

The Euro map looks a lot like the Canadian to me... 

[wxeyeNH]

I still get confused with op verses ensembles.  Maybe for the weenies out there someone can briefly explain.  I understand the ensembles are run with different variables. So they are all over the place.  What I never seem to understand is that common sense would mean that the op is the blend or "average" of the possible tracks on a given model run.  Kind of like taking the spaghetti maps  of a tropical system and showing the most likely  center track.  Wouldn't the op just be the average of the ensembles?   Obviously it is not if the op of the Euro run is east of the cluster.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, weathafella said:

81 and 84 crush me.   I can't get them to save so won't be posting them.

EPS is perfect for us

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I still get confused with op verses ensembles.  Maybe for the weenies out there someone can briefly explain.  I understand the ensembles are run with different variables. So they are all over the place.  What I never seem to understand is that common sense would mean that the op is the blend or "average" of the possible tracks on a given model run.  Kind of like taking the spaghetti maps  of a tropical system and showing the most likely  center track.  Wouldn't the op just be the average of the ensembles?   Obviously it is not if the op of the Euro run is east of the cluster.

The OP is one of the members

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, bboughton said:

The Euro map looks a lot like the Canadian to me... 

Exactly, which is NOT where you want to be if you want any credibility. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Can someone do a gefs mean snow map for comparisons sake?

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS is perfect for us

Even better than last night's!

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I still get confused with op verses ensembles.  Maybe for the weenies out there someone can briefly explain.  I understand the ensembles are run with different variables. So they are all over the place.  What I never seem to understand is that common sense would mean that the op is the blend or "average" of the possible tracks on a given model run.  Kind of like taking the spaghetti maps  of a tropical system and showing the most likely  center track.  Wouldn't the op just be the average of the ensembles?   Obviously it is not if the op of the Euro run is east of the cluster.

The OP run is basically another ensemble member except it is the highest skilled member. It usually has higher resolution than the ensembles and the data input into it is exactly as taken from RAOB and satellite measurements, sfc obs,  etc. The ensemble members might tweak some of that data to show a range of solutions if the data was slightly off or interpolated differently between high density points. 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Like yesterday.  

 

Given the robust showing of the euro ensembles I'm confident that run was a turd.

 

Ha, right - it did do that yesterday.

Yeah I saw the EPS mean ... GEFs - by the way folks, did anyone see the individual members of the GEFs? Previous runs had some historic appeals there, but this one goofed at the website.

 

[powderfreak]

Surprised those in Mass east of ORH even look at the models anymore lol....you all know how this plays out a week ahead of time.  

Pure crushage.  Just sit back, put your feet up and wait for it to start snowing.  

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The OP is one of the members

The OP is run using standard conditions and each of the ensemble members have those standard conditions tweaked slightly to account for possible deviations or inaccuracies in the standard conditions.  The ensemble mean isn't a member, it's a smoothed average of all the ensemble members with tweaked conditions- thus the ensemble mean can easily be different from the OP.  It indicates where the OP may "go" in the future since relying on one set of conditions oftentimes isn't as accurate as using a spread of conditions (especially at long lead times when uncertainty is higher- that's why it's often said to use ensembles at 48 hours or longer and the OP within 48 hours.)

 

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The OP run is basically another ensemble member except it is the highest skilled member. It usually has higher resolution than the ensembles and the data input into it is exactly as taken from RAOB and satellite measurements, sfc obs,  etc. The ensemble members might tweak some of that data to show a range of solutions if the data was slightly off or interpolated differently between high density points. 

Yep and the higher accuracy of ensembles at long lead times comes from the fact that slight inaccuracies or deviations are magnified the further out in time that you go.