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powderfreak

March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

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It's definitely a break in continuity/trend

Still.. much of my own thoughts earlier were buttressed by the notion that the Euro tends to do better at D4.5 and less lead times - which we were/are in... So, this is a bit unusual for that particular guidance source. 

The other aspect to consider is that ... it's such a large dominating feature that we may be a bit hyper honed in on variations from cycle to cycle; also in that, this type of perturbation may be normal for very large systems, where small more typical pedestrian coastals may "wiggle" the same amount relative to their size/relationship with the surrounding medium.

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1 minute ago, SR Airglow said:

 

At the risk of sounding weenieish, I wouldn't be surprised if there were some convective feedback issues with this run. Strange look with the precip distribution while it's down off the NJ coastline. Not tossing it yet, but let's see what the ensembles do. Confidence definitely just got shattered though after being fairly high previously.

It's 1 run, and the Euro isn't god like some like to believe it is. The GEFS/GFS/CMC/UK, the Euro is now an outlier. If they all jumped east like that i would worry more, but i wouldnt stress over this.

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Remember those posts saying OTS was not an option? Honestly this is that spurious DR No run we get at this time frame.  Watch the ENS come in and see if it's an outlier.  

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Talk about Lucy pulling the football away from the mid-Atlantic / NYC / western SNE and further northwest...

Objectively, GEFS / EPS / GFS / CMC weight is against this run, and the 72-78 hr handling of southern energy on this Euro run seems a little off

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6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

What's interesting is that the northern stream depiction is not too far from 0z... it's how the southern stream energy is handled... there's a piece of vorticity at 72-78 that juts out east, with a dual-low structure consolidating on an eventual low center that is further east

Yeah this looks inconsistent (specifically with the southern stream handling) from prior runs... 

As I posted earlier, lots of bobbling still possible with this... We (you included, Coastal, most of SNE) are praying for Friday's 12z depiction. I still have low confidence in the specifics.

 

Clearly see it here

 

H5.png

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Need to see ensembles, otherwise it's disturbing but not fully trusted and weighed against the other data. Others have alluded to the double low convective feedback scenario and although the Euro is the best it's not infallible.  Needless to say confidence just got downgraded from whatever category you were in.  We wait.

 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember those posts saying OTS was not an option? Honestly this is that spurious DR No run we get at this time frame.  Watch the ENS come in and see if it's an outlier.  

Fall off the horse?

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Here's what's going on with this run ... It's back to less phasing, period.

Not much more to explain beyond that...

The longer version: 00z run, was much more proficient in that regard.  It indicated a much more complete capture and stall and everything that this run does not do... It squirts the cyclone out way up toward the lower Maritime region like the previous dynamic. 

I agree with Scott that was not expected ...a regress in solution...getting closer in. Fascinating.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Fall off the horse?

No way, I should dig up those FEB 13 and Jan 11 Euro runs pretty much exactly at this time. I see what it did and it's spurious.  If it does this again at 0Z I would give it credit but hey here I am worrying about 15 to 18 inches of snow lol. 

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Ha, maybe all those comparisons to March '01 are actually onto something. Funny that we were worried about a HV runner last night. This is a sharp break from a fairly smooth run-to-run continuity, so I'm disinclined to give it undue weight right now. If we see something similar tonight, my thoughts may change.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

No way, I should dig up those FEB 13 and Jan 11 Euro runs pretty much exactly at this time. I see what it did and it's spurious.  If it does this again at 0Z I would give it credit but hey here I am worrying about 15 to 18 inches of snow lol. 

I don't think we will see that same thing at 0z, That was spurious.

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Agree Tip, less phasing, but I'd argue the mechanism is not because the northern stream energy is positioned/timed very differently (which I would lend more credence to for sampling reasons)... more because the southern stream energy is handled differently, which I think makes this run suspect. If it were the GFS, we'd toss this in a hurry.

This extension off NJ coast circled below, and not present on the 0z run... we get a dual-low structure between 72-78, and the whole system scoots further east

ecmwf_vort_500_east3_13.thumb.png.bd38ac80c4246966c6649aa62a4d434a.png

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tonight's run is before the time change 

I hate this earlier time change recently, we should go back to when it was April, hate it hate it hate it. Now we have to wait until almost 2 am to see the start of the Euro? No thanks.

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I hate this earlier time change recently, we should go back to when it was April, hate it hate it hate it. Now we have to wait until almost 2 am to see the start of the Euro? No thanks.

It used to be almost May.  It was late April til 1987 I think, then early April after 2000 or 2001.  Many forget the pre 87 even later change 

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15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

It's 1 run, and the Euro isn't god like some like to believe it is. The GEFS/GFS/CMC/UK, the Euro is now an outlier. If they all jumped east like that i would worry more, but i wouldnt stress over this.

Let's see what the EPS do.  I don't want to hold my breath for 12 hours for the next Euro run lol

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12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NavGEM is more or less west of the Euro inside 4 days, not sure I've ever seen that 

Even that shifted E at 06z from 0z.

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Hey, there's always the aptronymically named CRAS.

CRAS.gif

The CRAS and NavGEM can be useful because of their respective biases.  The NavGEM is in a great spot if you want hopes the Euro was out to lunch.  The CRAS is semi concerning because on benchmark tracks it frequently has lows in central PA

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It used to be almost May.  It was late April til 1987 I think, then early April after 2000 or 2001.  Many forget the pre 87 even later change 

Why don't they just change the times of the runs and make them run one hour earlier so we don't have to stay up so late during DST?

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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I hate this earlier time change recently, we should go back to when it was April, hate it hate it hate it. Now we have to wait until almost 2 am to see the start of the Euro? No thanks.

Thanks for this.  I havn't had an entry in my "Diary of 1st World Problems" in weeks.

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's what's going on with this run ... It's back to less phasing, period.

Not much more to explain beyond that...

The longer version: 00z run, was much more proficient in that regard.  It indicated a much more complete capture and stall and everything that this run does not do... It squirts the cyclone out way up toward the lower Maritime region like the previous dynamic. 

I agree with Scott that was not expected ...a regress in solution...getting closer in. Fascinating.

It's one of those two steps forward one step backwards kind of deal

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