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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion


powderfreak

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are you looking at soundings or trusting the precip algorithm?

 

I cannot imagine this is a rain sounding:

 

 

170314033941.gif

That's a good look although doesn't match up with what I'm seeing at the surface - we happily take that though. I definitely overreacted and apologize for that.

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At hour 18 the GFS precip map shows rain all the way to pratcially hartord, yet the 850 line is barely touching New London. Is there some sort of sneaky layer in there or something?

 

EDIT: Guess it could be the surface? But i'll take my chances with that given the dynamics. Wish other models showed 850's similar to this though.

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2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

At hour 18 the GFS precip map shows rain all the way to pratcially hartord, yet the 850 line is barely touching New London. Is there some sort of sneaky layer in there or something?

don't look at the precip maps.  PRobably has it as rain b/c sfc temp is like 33 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

precip rates will keep it snow even if sfc is like  35 

The sfc won't be 35 with those precip rates anyway.

 

BOS will get screwed if they don't get the precip rates that all guidance is showing...but if they get those precip rates, they will get double digits before any taint.

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look closely at these SR models and notice the elongation east as it approaches LI, indicates to me that the redeveloping centers are developing east as convection fires North as we saw in Jan 11 and Jan 15. Watch the HRRR and RAP closely 

I've been looking at that for the last few cycles.
What is lacking is analysis of previous model runs in comparison to what is actually happening. One poster comes to mind...
Model smodel at this point just look at the obs., radar. Break out the Bufkit, watch and learn in realtime. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The sfc won't be 35 with those precip rates anyway.

 

BOS will get screwed if they don't get the precip rates that all guidance is showing...but if they get those precip rates, they will get double digits before any taint.

no good point...definitely right near 32.  snow ratios will blow and snow will be wet but its still snow

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