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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Changes me over by 10am.even the warmest NAMs don't do that. 

RGEM has definitely been the warmest model almost every cycle...and it's been leading the charge as most guidance has been following it. We'll see if it's right these two or three most recent times.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah definitely a tick warmer in eastern MA

I'm smelling a bust for us unfortunately - don't like that these ticks keep going as we're getting up to gametime. One more tick and we're screwed, as it is, I think we're relying on dynamics to save us during the good stuff. Being east hurts here as precip is coming in west to east while changover is basically south to north(A bit of a generalization, but you get the idea). Oh well - win some, lose some. Just hoping for an hour or two of chaos at this point and then hopefully if it rains, it rains enough to wash away whatever falls on my car so I don't have to clean it off tomorrow night.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

I'm smelling a bust for us unfortunately - don't like that these ticks keep going as we're getting up to gametime. One more tick and we're screwed, as it is, I think we're relying on dynamics to save us during the good stuff. Being east hurts here as precip is coming in west to east while changover is basically south to north(A bit of a generalization, but you get the idea). Oh well - win some, lose some. Just hoping for an hour or two of chaos at this point and then hopefully if it rains, it rains enough to wash away whatever falls on my car so I don't have to clean it off tomorrow night.

Yeah was gonna say, we are running out of models to cling to... Dr. Yes tonight is it

Should have trusted my instincts on this, and lots of co-workers counted on my to make a call. Hard not to get swept away by pretty much every TV / NWS forecast. Not over yet, let's hope RGEM vomits on this one though it sure is steady and consistent

 

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

GFS has been the most east, will be interesting to see how far west it comes. 

Noticed precip entering SW CT. Seems a little earlier than thought. Prolly virga, but first flakes in NE should commence soon.

It is snowing lightly here. It's steady and not just stray flurries.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted
Just now, wxsniss said:

Yeah was gonna say, we are running out of models to cling to... Dr. Yes tonight is it

Should have trusted my instincts on this, and lots of co-workers counted on my to make a call. Hard not to get swept away by pretty much every TV / NWS forecast. Not over yet, let's hope RGEM vomits on this one though it sure is steady and consistent

 

I went 10-14" this morning in my office and got a lot of "well XYZ said 18". Now I'm hoping we can get 8" that people think is 10" so I don't bust myself :P

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BRSno

BRSno

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

I went 10-14" this morning in my office and got a lot of "well XYZ said 18". Now I'm hoping we can get 8" that people think is 10" so I don't bust myself :P

 

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah was gonna say, we are running out of models to cling to... Dr. Yes tonight is it

Should have trusted my instincts on this, and lots of co-workers counted on my to make a call. Hard not to get swept away by pretty much every TV / NWS forecast. Not over yet, let's hope RGEM vomits on this one though it sure is steady and consistent

 

Same boat, I have at least updated and tried not to cling to a fake call that was relevant 3 days ago. 

At least I didn't encourage the "close the office" call :lol:

Para NAM looked much better than any other run today, hope that becomes the majority of the 0z suite, even without the RGEM. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look closely at these SR models and notice the elongation east as it approaches LI, indicates to me that the redeveloping centers are developing east as convection fires North as we saw in Jan 11 and Jan 15. Watch the HRRR and RAP closely 

The RAP was always good for a messenger east tick.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look closely at these SR models and notice the elongation east as it approaches LI, indicates to me that the redeveloping centers are developing east as convection fires North as we saw in Jan 11 and Jan 15. Watch the HRRR and RAP closely 

That's what saved the 0z Nam run from being even more west

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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look closely at these SR models and notice the elongation east as it approaches LI, indicates to me that the redeveloping centers are developing east as convection fires North as we saw in Jan 11 and Jan 15. Watch the HRRR and RAP closely 

I noticed this too. The optimist says these models, and the GFS maybe even, is on to something. The pessimist realizes how little I know about this and that I'm wishcasting.

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