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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, weathafella said:

Which one.  Old one?  Retired Wednesday.  New one?  New hi res?  Lol...there are so many NAMS and many more weenies.

hmm not sure.  whatever NAM they have on weather.cod  

What also seems a little weird is how the strongest lift (vertical velocities) actually push into the region around/after 18z tomorrow.  While models show a great deal of QPF before hand if the degree of lift isn't substantial enough it may be tough to get good moisture into the SGZ to really optimize the QPF and generate good solid snow growth.  We could have heavy snows with this but flake size could kind of suck

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

hmm not sure.  whatever NAM they have on weather.cod  

What also seems a little weird is how the strongest lift (vertical velocities) actually push into the region around/after 18z tomorrow.  While models show a great deal of QPF before hand if the degree of lift isn't substantial enough it may be tough to get good moisture into the SGZ to really optimize the QPF and generate good solid snow growth.  We could have heavy snows with this but flake size could kind of suck

We've been saying to stick to climo ratios in the warm conveyor. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Storm sucks already :(

 

 

 

seriously though...it's just forecast difference between GYX and CAR.

But seriously, weenies arguing over the difference between 17.4" and 17.5" of snow. That's all it takes to jump from orange to red on that map. CAR has 18" we might have 16", big deal.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Well of course we'll slot-the low goes nearly over us but until it happens it should be fun.

The biggest concern with it is how quickly does it become established and push into the region?  I mean if its like 17z or something that probably eats away like 3-4''+ of snow for many.  If it holds off until later definitely much better for getting even more amounts 

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