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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion


powderfreak

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's all freaking noise practically. Maybe 18z stuff settled back a tad.  

Yeah it's basically just models settling in on a final solution. We won't see anymore major trickles. But there's this false idea on here that there's been some massive west trend across the board and it's not stopping. There's no west trend. It's a few models correcting their known biases. And you have people thinking a Rainer in BOS lol

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So let's evaluate that.

Rgem East

Euro/ ENS- slightly east

GFS correcting west because was too east 

Para Nam- same or nudge east

So......

 

 

 

It's really easy to tell when you haven't looked at the models.

Para NAM did not nudge east. It moved considerably west.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it's basically just models settling in on a final solution. We won't see anymore major trickles. But there's this false idea on here that there's been some massive west trend across the board and it's not stopping. There's no west trend. It's a few models correcting their known biases. And you have people thinking a Rainer in BOS lol

For some people that tick west makes a big difference, I'd be down too if I was forecast for 18+ and now it was 3-6.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I still can't think of any recent storm that looked to bring so much heavy snow over such a large geographic area.  

Be interesting to compare other storms with such a large area of 12"+.

Looks like I am going to be ok on this one. The camera will be ready.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy a track from GHG to even S of KPYM could mean the difference of like 5" at BOS. So close.

Yeah was just looking at 12z Euro: that window 18z-21z will be pretty intense (2pm-5pm), if we can keep it all snow (and per Euro looks like mix begins ~20-21z), 10-16" should verify

Verbatim, our most intense rates will be early-mid afternoon a little before changeover

Looks like 18z PARA-NAM mixes ~ an hour earlier, 18z old-NAM ~ a little before that... 

literally 10 mile shift east could translate into 2-4 more inches 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Re: 18z GFS from a met friend 

basically less phasing so coastal is not jerked as far west, and more ability for 850 low over coastal to stay closed off and deepen

Huh? 18z GFS was way west. Might be the western outlier now if you throw out the 12km NAM.

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I must be missing something. Doesn't seem like anyone west of 495 is going to taint for more than an hour or two and even that's questionable. BOS still looks good for close to a foot. We knew CC was going to get screwed. Has something catastrophic happened in the last hour or so that NWS, WeatherUnderground, Accuwx, the broadcast channels, etc, etc. haven't seen?

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Fighting over 10-20 mile jogs in storm track..............lol

Life's tough on the fence... in that 18z-21z critical window, that 10 miles will make a difference of at least 2-4" for Boston

I think the bigger reason people are anxious is that the west trends since 18z yesterday might continue as we get closer, and we might continue to shave off of what last night was a comfortable 12-18" all snow

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