March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

4k NAM drops over an inch apt in 1 hour over HRV. 10-12" per hour

Did wiz mean 6-12 in one hour?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That product does pretty good near the ocean seems to over do inland by 10-15, but hey with those rates maybe?

I've seen it do well in elevations too. Not saying it verifies..just saying it shows it and seems possible

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

where do you see that? Max gusts, take the under inland

I could sniff a G60+

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

where do you see that? Max gusts, take the under inland

Post the sustained map

[dryslot]

In the FWIW dept, The 15z SREFS bumped up qpf considerably from 09z

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

4k NAM drops over an inch in 1 hour over W CT. 10-12" per hour

Is that roughly collocated with the 700mb low? Pretty extreme.

[dryslot]

lol, That would be Biblical for some.

[JC-CT]

I'm a bit concerned about QPF

[Cold Miser]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol

 

Jeezus H.

 

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I'm a bit concerned about QPF

Meaning?

[WintersComing]

Last I remember Wiz was still struggling on whether to stick with 8-12

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, That would be Biblical.

I mean they're going with it...They must believe what the models are showing with regard to the moisture.  It is super impressive that's for sure!

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Meaning?

 

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I could sniff a G60+

 Would have to think that GYX goes with blizzard warning somewhere. We would only have to verify frequent Gus over 35 for three hours even if the euro is too highis too high

[Hoth]

Man, I may have to see my doctor in four hours after checking out the wv loop.     

Also, which model first sniffed this out. So impressive that this has been rock solid on the models for at least a week now.

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

 

I don't know, but most of the models are pretty amped up.

[BRSno]

SREF plumes (while not very reliable) went from a min of 2.5" (9z) to 0.9" (15z) for BOS. Mean stays the same. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

 Would have to think that GYX goes with blizzard warning somewhere. We would only have to verify frequent Gus over 35 for three hours even if the euro is too highis too high

I would think those zones right along the coast would have a shot.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm a bit concerned about QPF

Me too.  I wish the EPS mean was higher than 1.6" here.  

[moneypitmike]

I'm thinking BOX may just move its highest possible map to the most likely slot and call it a day.

[JC-CT]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Me too.  I wish the EPS mean was higher than 1.6" here.  

You should only pull about 15:1 ratios. I'd watch things closely.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Me too.  I wish the EPS mean was higher than 1.6" here.  

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dryslot said:

I would think those zones right along the coast would have a shot.

I am in Dover now :-) so I wouldn't mind my first verifiable lizard 10 years in New England

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I am in Dover now :-) so I wouldn't mind my first verifiable lizard 10 years in New England

 

There are lots of lizards in Florida.  Maybe you should move there.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm thinking BOX may just move its highest possible map to the most likely slot and call it a day.

First time i ever saw you say that i think lol

[JC-CT]

Man, the NAM is super amped again.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

There are lots of lizards in Florida.  Maybe you should move there.

LOL voice typing ftl  sort of like your wayward thumbs from a few years ago 

[snowgeek]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm a bit concerned about QPF

LOL.  I'm a bit concerned about my back.  

[Hoth]

Not sure I've seen an ensemble run with 2" before. 

[Ginx snewx]

NCAR live updating

http://ensemble.ucar.edu/images.php?d=2017031312&f=snowacc_mean&r=CONUS