March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

10-12:1 would be my guess to ratios especially the further east one gets if the stay all snow

BTV was thinking 12:1 with their morning package.  Do not know if it will change with the pm update.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

lol. A quick 10-12.  Just sounds so matter of fact.  This thing looks to be packing quite a punch.

Never actually seen a storm modeled like this by reliable models...sure, the NAM does this at least twice per winter and the ARW twice per month, but not models like the Euro.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Euro tries to get this top 10er without the phase..  

Maybe sure - what the hell... 

I think the fact that it's occurring in the middle of March is giving it a big advantage in terms of available moisture and Baroclinicity. 

[Morch Madness]

7 minutes ago, BRSno said:

If I'm reading this correctly, which I may very well not be, does it mean that almost 1" of QPF falls while we're above freezing? Does it directly correlate to frozen precip?

Those are only 6 hour intervals so it's really hard to tell, you'd need hourly intervals really. But if we start a 6 hour window at -4.6 and end it at 1.2 with 1" in between, probably most of that is snow

[bboughton]

Noyes was pretty all-in. They built an in-house model over there, I wonder that's why they went higher. Looks a lot like the Euro output. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

10-12:1 would be my guess to ratios especially the further east one gets if the stay all snow

Yeah I'd stick to front end climo. Also, there will be some 6hr core samples with a lot of meat to it that will somewhat weigh it down....especially if we're seeing 1"+ QPF in 6hrs versus spreading it out over a 24hr storm with 4 samples.

[Typhoon Tip]

Love this Euro run ... while we're licking cryospheric wounds with this thing and yet another moderate pop over the weekend, ... already spring is loading into the Plains and MV next D 7.  Kansas has +20 C at 850 !   ... which given their sigma level's gotta be mid 80s - 

 

[rnaude241]

Congrats to the West and North on this storm. I'll be lurking while the low goes over my head.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah its prob about 80% snow in BOS...power outages would be a major concern because the snow turns pastier as the afternoon goes on before the flip.

I'm ready to go final...gonna write up in a bit.

Will, looks like cf is new 495 on euro.....think it may verify near me...

[MarkO]

Pretty cool seeing the coastal blow up on radar: 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LTX-N0Q-1-48

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Didn't look like it to me

It increased elsewhere but chopped an inch or two off SEMass

[ORH_wxman]

Tip finds a way to talk about plains heat at D7 even in the storm thread.

 

Already awaiting for the first sonoran heat release thread....

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I'd stick to front end climo. Also, there will be some 6hr core samples with a lot of meat to it that will somewhat weigh it down....especially if we're seeing 1"+ QPF in 6hrs versus spreading it out over a 24hr storm with 4 samples.

Going to be quite a bit of compaction with this stuff.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Love this Euro run ... while we're licking cryospheric wounds with this thing and yet another moderate pop over the weekend, ... already spring is loading into the Plains and MV next D 7.  Kansas has +20 C at 850 !   ... which given their sigma level's gotta be mid 80s - 

 

Glad we don't live there 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think the fact that it's occurring in the middle of March is giving it a big advantage in terms of available moisture and Baroclinicity. 

Yeah ... no kidding.  Will and I've talked about that "diabatic edge" ... 

I think in reanalysis we'd find that to be true with a lot of these spring bombs - in this case, we really have a reasonably decent lower tropospheric arctic column in place - though moderating some, not fast enough... Then, we foist that super charged deep south air on up and ...  

Come to think of it, 1888 was anecdotally in the 50s with light rain the day before in NYC... And when the storm commenced, it was like whiplashed into the teens... 

 

[BRSno]

Thanks for all the help guys, and sorry for all the newbie questions. 

Somewhere between the NAM and the GFS is the EURO, so it sounds like a fair compromise. I think 10-16" will be my call. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It increased elsewhere but chopped an inch or two off SEMass

Snow?, Qpf was higher so it looks like more may fall as a mix.

[rockchalk83]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Love this Euro run ... while we're licking cryospheric wounds with this thing and yet another moderate pop over the weekend, ... already spring is loading into the Plains and MV next D 7.  Kansas has +20 C at 850 !   ... which given their sigma level's gotta be mid 80s - 

 

 

Sorry for the OT response...but I'm lurking in here. Would love to be in your shoes out here. We have had a bone dry winter and several major fires in the last week. While the Euro & GFS both suggest 80s here for Sunday, we need rain/snow desperately or this is going to be a very dry year. 

Something to point out on a satellite picture from a few (or a lot) posts ago...the gravity waves in the convective stream in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a tremendous amount of energy headed your way...should be quite a show tomorrow. 

Good luck to everyone up there! Back to lurking for me. 

[JC-CT]

[ORH_wxman]

Kuchera maps are going to replace the SREFs by next winter as the source we turn to for a weenie solution when all other options have been exhausted.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Euro dropped 10" here on Sunday next weekend @10:1....................

[BRSno]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

 

7"? We toss 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad we don't live there 

Amazing how clearly you took in the point as usual ... 

[FSUIZZY]

1 minute ago, BRSno said:

 

7"? We toss 

 

Yeh what is up with that, mistake?

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Snow?, Qpf was higher so it looks like more may fall as a mix.

Yes, I was specifically referring to snow accums. It's definitely wetter overall. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kuchera maps are going to replace the SREFs by next winter as the source we turn to for a weenie solution when all other options have been exhausted.

What? You don't like the 20:1 ratios it is spitting out?

 

[LaGrangewx]

anyone have access to eurowx map?

[BRSno]

Just now, FSUIZZY said:

Yeh what is up with that, mistake?

Probably giving us 5:1 or 7:1 ratios at some parts of the storm reducing totals + the taint/change. The 10:1 map is much nicer but probably slightly overdone here. 

[J Paul Gordon]

Kuchie actually looks sane for inland areas.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, BRSno said:

Probably giving us 5:1 or 7:1 ratios at some parts of the storm reducing totals + the taint/change. The 10:1 map is much nicer but probably slightly overdone here. 

It's punishing BOS right on the water because the sfc is above freezing for a chunk of the snow....like 33F for several hours. So the algorithm greatly reduces the ratio even though that 32-33F temp would be no match for 3" per hour rates.