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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean it's extremely hard to sustain 2+ inches an hour for longer than a 3 or 4 hour window. Even the 6" in an hour report from earlier this winter in York County, we could only maintain those 2+ rates for 3 hours.

Had 17" in 7 hr last Dec. 29-30, and 18" in 7.5 hr in Feb. '09.  Probably top end dumpage for my area over that duration.  If the VD-07 analog PF noted does pan out, we won't get much 2"/hr in the foothills.  That storm had crummy dendrite growth and even with temps low teens had ratios 8-9 to 1.  Still an outstanding storm, and there'd be no complaints from here for one like it.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember in December 1996 we got about 17 inches in 8 hours...in the Cantore thundersnow storm...it was basically a giant WCB with the 700 low going through ALB. This almost looks like that except more impressive. There really aren't any great analogs...March '93 sort of had this but it was obviously a more epic storm on a dynamic level...maybe something like Jan 1-2, 1987 as well...but this looks more impressive than that one.

With this kind of forcing and warm advection it's really going to produce I think. I have 12-18 for HVN/BDL with 18-24" Litchfield/Fairfield Cos... I wouldn't be surprised if we wind up on the higher end of those numbers.

Still will need at least a piece of the CCB to clip areas to get 20"+ I'd imagine. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Are we all powder ORH - TOL and west ? Or dense stuff?

Powder...but it might get dense because it comes close to mixing...so it could be 25F but the snow turns into baking powder or even a bit rimed and denser. It probably won't be 20 to 1 fluff for us...that's probably reserved for the deformation areas. There could be a period of 20 to 1 at the height when the growth is the best, but it won't last I don't think.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Powder...but it might get dense because it comes close to mixing...so it could be 25F but the snow turns into baking powder or even a bit rimed and denser. It probably won't be 20 to 1 fluff for us...that's probably reserved for the deformation areas. There could be a period of 20 to 1 at the height when the growth is the best, but it won't last I don't think.

Yeah looks like for a while we dry out the DGZ but still getting an omega bomb below that. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CT Rain said:

With this kind of forcing and warm advection it's really going to produce I think. I have 12-18 for HVN/BDL with 18-24" Litchfield/Fairfield Cos... I wouldn't be surprised if we wind up on the higher end of those numbers.

Still will need at least a piece of the CCB to clip areas to get 20"+ I'd imagine. 

2" per hour seems like a lock for several hours...you already have 10-12" from that if you go 5-6 hours which also seems like a lock. So yeah, I don't think going 12" as a min is a bad way to go right now outside of SE MA where mixing could be an issue.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Powder...but it might get dense because it comes close to mixing...so it could be 25F but the snow turns into baking powder or even a bit rimed and denser. It probably won't be 20 to 1 fluff for us...that's probably reserved for the deformation areas. There could be a period of 20 to 1 at the height when the growth is the best, but it won't last I don't think.

Where do you see a mix line at this point?

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Powder...but it might get dense because it comes close to mixing...so it could be 25F but the snow turns into baking powder or even a bit rimed and denser. It probably won't be 20 to 1 fluff for us...that's probably reserved for the deformation areas. There could be a period of 20 to 1 at the height when the growth is the best, but it won't last I don't think.

You think the Euro (snow) numbers are pretty realistic for the Worcester-Tolland massif? 

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

What kind of ratios do you guys expect with this one?  Conflicting snow growth signals.  Should be close to 15:1 to the NW of low where winds might not be too crazy?  I can't fathom getting close to 2" QPF with 15:1 ratio's....although we have seen talk of big ratios fail in the past.   

I'm curios about that myself. 

The Feb 07 analog that PF posted put 2.2" LE here but only 19" SN. So either crappy growth or some IP mixed in, wasn't here, so not sure.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Where do you see a mix line at this point?

I could see it getting to like 495 down through your hood...maybe even as far west as ORH-TOL...but I think any mixing that far west is pretty inconsequential as the vast majority of the QPF is falling as snow. Even areas like BOS will get most of their QPF as snow. The area where the forecast might be the hardest is like Marshfield to Taunton to PVD or so and down to near maybe Carver and Dighton....it could snow a quick 10-12" there or it could be over after 4-6....tough call.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BRSno said:

If I'm reading this correctly, which I may very well not be, does it mean that almost 1" of QPF falls while we're above freezing? Does it directly correlate to frozen precip?

58c6e60c807f4_ScreenShot2017-03-13at2_32_21PM.thumb.png.7e780086158ad997c08444a960be5b2e.png

Thats 1 inch of liquid ENDing at that hour and 1.2 850s ENDING at the hour. So if you start at -4.6 at the beginning, most of that 1.00 falls as snow before you warm up, say 75% or so.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BRSno said:

If I'm reading this correctly, which I may very well not be, does it mean that almost 1" of QPF falls while we're above freezing? Does it directly correlate to frozen precip?

58c6e60c807f4_ScreenShot2017-03-13at2_32_21PM.thumb.png.7e780086158ad997c08444a960be5b2e.png

BOS gets pretty pasty before the flip in the afternoon.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I could see it getting to like 495 down through your hood...maybe even as far west as ORH-TOL...but I think any mixing that far west is pretty inconsequential as the vast majority of the QPF is falling as snow. Even areas like BOS will get most of their QPF as snow. The area where the forecast might be the hardest is like Marshfield to Taunton to PVD or so and down to near maybe Carver and Dighton....it could snow a quick 10-12" there or it could be over after 4-6....tough call.

lol. A quick 10-12.  Just sounds so matter of fact.  This thing looks to be packing quite a punch.

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