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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion


powderfreak

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4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Interesting. NAM/RGEM (I know RGEM a little out of it's range) are clustering pretty tight and change Boston over.

Need a last night's Euro track to keep it all snow, but given the over-amping trends I'm not confident.

My hope is that there is still some mishandling of the vorticity off New Jersey, and that little blip of 2nd further east low on NAM at hr 33 is a hint of ticking back east, but I'm not confident.

12z RGEM will be big.

 

Not so sure, Its not performed very well in quite a few events so far this winter.

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2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Interesting. NAM/RGEM (I know RGEM a little out of it's range) are clustering pretty tight and change Boston over.

Need a last night's Euro track to keep it all snow, but given the over-amping trends I'm not confident.

My hope is that there is still some mishandling of the vorticity off New Jersey, and that little blip of 2nd further east low on NAM at hr 33 is a hint of ticking back east, but I'm not confident.

12z RGEM will be big.

 

I think Will is correct!  The vortmax is not being quite as modeled right as it should be and of course the ULL/Great Lakes low is not being profiled as well.  It's either going to be neutral to positive and put this thing further east or it's going to be a slight negative tilt and bring this thing further west.  I just don't know which one to believe.

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10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Boston will change over

My question is wether there is mid level dry air in Merrimack valley

 

But what will they change to and how far inland does it come?  As the crow flies  about 3 miles inside 128.....maybe a tad less.

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Interesting. NAM/RGEM (I know RGEM a little out of it's range) are clustering pretty tight and change Boston over.

Need a last night's Euro track to keep it all snow, but given the over-amping trends I'm not confident.

My hope is that there is still some mishandling of the vorticity off New Jersey, and that little blip of 2nd further east low on NAM at hr 33 is a hint of ticking back east, but I'm not confident.

12z RGEM will be big.

 

I really don't trust the way guidance is handling that little vorticity ripple ahead of the main southern stream...if it was a larger feature, I'd be fine with it, but it's pretty nuanced. It is clearly being seen on all guidance but the 12z NAM just change it and while it still wrapped things up pretty close, you could see how it was initially east down south...so what happens if we see that same trend 12 hours from now but now it is displaced to the north since it's 12 hours later? I definitely wouldn't say toss that type of solution, but I think it is sometimes wise to have a certain amount of skepticism in unconventional setups.

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20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM 850s get to 2.3 at BOS

NAM para maxes 0.8.  

Para is the regular NAM in 2 days.  

Which one is right?

Yeah Jerry Para tracked further east compared to Op... looks like a canal track.

Not much buffer for our area, rest of the 12z suite will be critical.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I really don't trust the way guidance is handling that little vorticity ripple ahead of the main southern stream...if it was a larger feature, I'd be fine with it, but it's pretty nuanced. It is clearly being seen on all guidance but the 12z NAM just change it and while it still wrapped things up pretty close, you could see how it was initially east down south...so what happens if we see that same trend 12 hours from now but now it is displaced to the north since it's 12 hours later? I definitely wouldn't say toss that type of solution, but I think it is sometimes wise to have a certain amount of skepticism in unconventional setups.

Yeah skepticism is necessary on anything that runs into land on a coastal track.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Wow still holding onto the hugger tracks... this never happens.  You guys will get your East ticks today.

 

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah skepticism is necessary on anything that runs into land on a coastal track.

You're playing the DIT reverse psychology game...I like it! You may get your long awaited hugger finally. Sometimes you just need to change tactics.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I really don't trust the way guidance is handling that little vorticity ripple ahead of the main southern stream...if it was a larger feature, I'd be fine with it, but it's pretty nuanced. It is clearly being seen on all guidance but the 12z NAM just change it and while it still wrapped things up pretty close, you could see how it was initially east down south...so what happens if we see that same trend 12 hours from now but now it is displaced to the north since it's 12 hours later? I definitely wouldn't say toss that type of solution, but I think it is sometimes wise to have a certain amount of skepticism in unconventional setups.

Absolutely, I've been harping on this vorticity handling uncertainty off New Jersey. On this 12z NAM it causes an initial further east track to track NNE and be more tucked by hour 30 (so that you'd expect a much further west track even compared to 6z), but then makes a hard right to ultimately clip southeast MA like 6z NAM did.

Strange evolution that I think reflects uncertainty about all those competing lobes of vorticity. 

I'd be more inclined to toss but the west ticks have been a consistent theme since 0z suite.

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