March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is an incredible run from a dynamic standpoint.

How so Will?

[Hoth]

Congrats MPM on this one. 

[dryslot]

Looks like its over the elbow this run

[SouthCoastMA]

It's a bit further east, but also stronger. So it actually changes over quicker 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, sankaty said:

Everything is definitely a bit east, but also a bit warmer just above 850MB.  Brings the mixing line right to my doorstep at 30hrs.  Why the increased warmth with the surface and mid levels east?

Still a huge hit.

It's more wrapped up and intense than 06z, so it's gonna flirt you with mixing. But it probably snows heavier.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, sankaty said:

Everything is definitely a bit east, but also a bit warmer just above 850MB.  Brings the mixing line right to my doorstep at 30hrs.  Why the increased warmth with the surface and mid levels east?

Still a huge hit.

Wouldn't trust the thermals if I were you.

[SouthCoastMA]

it snows from 9am to Noon down here, per the NAM. maybe i can pull off 6" with that run verbatim

[ROOSTA]

Alas it's the NAM, taken for it's worth. Combine that with all the other guidance....
NOW THATS A BOMB!!! 

[dryslot]

Its 3mb stronger then the 06z run

[SouthCoastMA]

shoots right up Ngansett Bay. Was hoping for a better shift..oh well. 

[TalcottWx]

The West trend has hit a wall. Great sign to me. Gotta see if it continues with other modeling. 

[WintersComing]

[dryslot]

NW CT to ORH looks to get crushed this run

[WinterWolf]

How did it look for those of West of the River and Inland in CT?  I know it's the NAM as well.  Feeling pretty decent about being further west on this one.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Man its a beast this run though.

Pounding snow back here.  Wow. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Pounding snow back here.  Wow. 

Crushed.

[Hoth]

Chief takeaway is qpf continues to ramp up. Great dynamics.

[sankaty]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's more wrapped up and intense than 06z, so it's gonna flirt you with mixing. But it probably snows heavier.

Thanks.  Looking at the soundings, verbatim we'd either narrowly miss mixing or mix for just an hour or two.  With the 2.25" QPF it puts out, I think we'd do OK.

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

How did it look for those of West of the River and Inland in CT?  I know it's the NAM as well.  Feeling pretty decent about being further west on this one.

But the looks of it you are in a great spot

[WeatherWilly]

7.2 inches.................might as well be on the cape

[sankaty]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How did it look for those of West of the River and Inland in CT?  I know it's the NAM as well.  Feeling pretty decent about being further west on this one.

More than 2.25" QPF, basically all snow.  Powder day at Mt. Southington.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'd hold off on going crazy on NAM strength and qpf. I'd wager as the NAM continues east each run now that eventually it backs off a bit 

[DomNH]

H7 low came back a little SE and no longer rips through ENY. Still dryslots later but as Will said the dynamics are absolutely incredible and that offsets it. Red flags at half staff. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, db306 said:

But the looks of it you are in a great spot

Haven't been able to say that for us Westerners since Feb of 13.  The NAM clown map shows a boat load back this way...We'll see how it plays out.  

[WintersComing]

Showing crazy amounts of liquid.

[Hoth]

The Kuchie map is just lol out towards the Hudson.

[ORH_wxman]

I'll take the under on the liquid...NAM went too zonked this run most likely.

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Haven't been able to say that for us Westerners since Feb of 13.  The NAM clown map shows a boat load back this way...We'll see how it plays out.  

Little worried about that mixing line though but either way still showing a good thumpin!!

[WinterWolf]

This thing is Juiced big time...holy smokes!!   I do realize it's the NAM so I'm tempering that a bit..but just incredible on the juice this seems to have.

[wxsniss]

I would not say this is an improvement over 6z, more amped and shows potential to tick even further west... and definitely warmer for southeast MA

Odd evolution: low actually is more tucked at hr 33 (further north than 6z NAM), but then tracks almost ENE through hr 36 and so ultimately tracks similar to 6z over NAR Bay to PYM... 

Also note at hr 33 the hint of a 2nd low further east, which may be related to the ENE track 33-36... lots of bobbling with the pieces of vorticity in that timeframe, and I'm not at all confident in how this evolves