March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[dryslot]

12z Nam is running so we will see if it holds serve or tics east some, 09Z SREFS ticked west.........fwiw

[dryslot]

Getting late in the game for wholesale changes.

[DomNH]

Despite the huge QPF, I actually think the 06z NAM verbatim kind of blows for a lot of SNE. Soundings are kind of dry and there's definitely a dryslot that rips through by 00z. Probably crappy flakes. The GFS is a lot better. I wouldn't mind a track a little SE over the elbow or MVY. That's probably better for most. 

[Epicnova]

Darn! Things were looking good for me last night. Today the blizzard watch has been canceled and instead of getting 12-18" we are only getting 8-12" I was hoping for something interesting.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Despite the huge QPF, I actually think the 06z NAM verbatim kind of blows for a lot of SNE. Soundings are kind of dry and there's definitely a dryslot that rips through by 00z. Probably crappy flakes. The GFS is a lot better. I wouldn't mind a track a little SE over the elbow or MVY. That's probably better for most. 

NAM is a fast mover, 10 hours total for parts of SNE.  Any time wasted on poor snow growth will bring totals down for some. 

[dryslot]

Early on in the run, I don't think the Nam is going to be east

[Cold Miser]

5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Despite the huge QPF, I actually think the 06z NAM verbatim kind of blows for a lot of SNE. Soundings are kind of dry and there's definitely a dryslot that rips through by 00z. Probably crappy flakes. The GFS is a lot better. I wouldn't mind a track a little SE over the elbow or MVY. That's probably better for most. 

I could see my area dry slotting for a while . I've been there before.  Just get me my 3" or so to put me above 50" for the season and I will be fine.

Thanks. 

[Cold Miser]

5 minutes ago, Epicnova said:

Darn! Things were looking good for me last night. Today the blizzard watch has been canceled and instead of getting 12-18" we are only getting 8-12" I was hoping for something interesting.

Where is your location? Your profile just says Massachusetts.

[Epicnova]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

Where is your location? Your profile just says Massachusetts.

Seekonk MA

[J Paul Gordon]

Funny how the posts go in waves here. "Huge, crushed" to "dry slot, things are looking bad, going west/east".... wash, rinse, repeat

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, Epicnova said:

Seekonk MA

Oh. That's like being in R.I.  Maybe a few ticks east would help you but this close to game time it may be tough. 

[rnaude241]

The NAM seems slower? Has the Low east of South Carolina

[DomNH]

3 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Funny how the posts go in waves here. "Huge, crushed" to "dry slot, things are looking bad, going west/east".... wash, rinse, repeat

Well I shouldn't say "bad", I guess I just want to highlight the red flags I'm seeing. But these are red flags for those hoping to see like 18''+ kind of totals, I don't think anyone who stays all snow comes away with less than a foot. 

[dryslot]

Trough slightly east of the 06z run, This may tic slightly east now from 06z

[Epicnova]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Oh. That's like being in R.I.  Maybe a few ticks east would help you but this close to game time it may be tough. 

Exactly

[wxsniss]

Through 15 hours looks more like 0z than 6z at H5... anticipating east tick

[MJHUB]

4 minutes ago, Epicnova said:

Seekonk MA

I'm in rumford, u will do fine in seekonk, a foot with gusts to 40. My pnc has 12-17 your less than 5 min away

[mostman]

Slight east at 21. A hair. Also a little stronger.

[dryslot]

Hr 25, Low is about 15 miles east of DC, 06z had it right along the coast there.

[J Paul Gordon]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Well I shouldn't say "bad", I guess I just want to highlight the red flags I'm seeing. But these are red flags for those hoping to see like 18''+ kind of totals, I don't think anyone who stays all snow comes away with less than a foot. 

Agree. 12"+ with wild winds is pretty good.... can it go up from there, sure.... seen it happen plenty of times. Actually, I think NWS is pretty on target if you look at all the map options (at least, most likely, potential for this much; low end, middle, high end). And yeah, banding can put you in a sweet spot or a screw zone, but that's getting pretty far into the "micro" forecast which is basically "now time".

I was referring to the waves of posters... the pollyannas vs the debbie downers and ball busters. Happens every storm.

[ORH_wxman]

H5 is clearly east at 24 hours...there's a lot of weird stuff that is going on with the leading vortmax ahead of the main southern stream. It's something I haven't trusted to be consistent on guidance.

[J Paul Gordon]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

H5 is clearly east at 24 hours...there's a lot of weird stuff that is going on with the leading vortmax ahead of the main southern stream. It's something I haven't trusted to be consistent on guidance.

good news

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

good news

Its not west.

[BRSno]

Even the front end isn't as nice for eastern folk on this run. 

[Morch Madness]

Looks about 30 miles east with the low so far

[ORH_wxman]

This is an incredible run from a dynamic standpoint.

[dryslot]

Man its a beast this run though.

[ORH_wxman]

It's really wrapping it up now at 30...it's gonna try and tuck back in a bit....unbelievable dynamics this run. Much more impressive than 06z.

[Hoth]

That's not west? Looks tucked in to Jersey to me.

[sankaty]

Everything is definitely a bit east, but also a bit warmer just above 850MB.  Brings the mixing line right to my doorstep at 30hrs.  Why the increased warmth with the surface and mid levels east?

Still a huge hit.