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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion


powderfreak

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19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I just have the vision of the 12z GFS cranking at 00z from HFD to MHT and PWM. 

I have a little case of the thickening. 

Yea....deformation will probably be E NY/Bershirres into s/c VT/NH...that is where I pegged it in my first call map on Friday night, and still like that idea.

I'll probably lower the 15-25" in e MA a bit..

3-14-17 FIRST CALL.png

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Told ya'll...energy being more detached prob sends it east. The differences are fairly minor overall at this point, but it's kind of counter intuitive at first glance, the more the southern stream goes south and is further from N stream, the less ability for it to get sucked back to the west by a phase. Usually in a more conventional setup if it's digging more, we often associate that with a more robust/west trend.

Yeah Will you were right. Of course it also depends on relative digging of northern stream... if that barrels in more amped (vs. delayed), that too would result in a more northwest (vs. eastern) track. 

Ideal scenario (for eastern SNE) is a later phase that delays the western tugging influence to our latitude. That has the potential of preserving an elbow / ACK / BM track while also improving duration and trajectory thereafter... something like the 12z Euro Friday solution... thereby also giving us a shot at deformation as the system tracks ENE rather than NNE. Have our cake and eat it too.

But that's greedy. Right now I'm still anxious about an RGEM-type over-amped scenario. Has been my fear all along given the southern stream origin.

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah Will you were right. Of course it also depends on relative digging of northern stream... if that barrels in more amped (vs. delayed), that too would result in a more northwest (vs. eastern) track. 

Ideal scenario (for eastern SNE) is a later phase that delays the western tugging influence to our latitude. That has the potential of preserving an elbow / ACK / BM track while also improving duration and trajectory thereafter... something like the 12z Euro Friday solution... thereby also giving us a shot at deformation as the system tracks ENE rather than NNE. Have our cake and eat it too.

But that's greedy. Right now I'm still anxious about an RGEM-type over-amped scenario. Has been my fear all along given the southern stream origin.

Its reason for concern, yet a select few keeping trying to blow bubbles up your rear, and put on a clinic in dissociation.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its reason for concern, yet a select few keeping trying to blow bubbles up your rear, and put on a clinic in dissociation.

I agree Ray

The thing I don't buy is rain to 495 on the 0z RGEM... even with a track over PYM I can't believe we see rain that far west.

Hard to shake the fear of a southern system amp and hug the coast more than expected, even in an overall progressive regime. I haven't look to see what RGEM is doing at H5. UK bump is unnerving, but it is going against a very good consensus of 18z+0z NAM / 0z GFS / 12z Euro / EPS of elbow/ACK track.

 

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only thing worse than measuring 9" worth of a cosmic dildo at the conclusion of what could have been an 18" storm is the crowd that condemns you for being disappointed. 

"Let me tell you what you should enjoy".

 

that has been my reality on here for years!!!!!!!!!!!!!    

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