March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[dendrite]

Most of those SREF members take the low into CT.

[J Paul Gordon]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Let's put it this way. 2007 has repeatedly shown up as a top analog. That would make lots of posters unhappy. Not saying it will happen, but it could.

Yeah. Gotcha on that one. We got a lousy 17" out of the stupid thing here. But, yeah, I've seen some pretty miserable busts after a lot of hype. Boxing day here was lousy. We were int that damned dry slot for hours while everyone around us got slammed.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Damn, this storm is gonna' be loaded with moisture.  1"+ qpf all the way into the Catskills on most models.  

[powderfreak]

Just now, weathafella said:

No never shook-it always is what it is.  If we inexplicably lose this my life work wise is far less complicated.

I truly believe there will be an east shift between now and go-time.  At least a tick or two.  Lows don't run into land.

[dryslot]

A new weenie is born

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I truly believe there will be an east shift between now and go-time.  At least a tick or two.  Lows don't run into land.

Ack elbow track.

[SnowHole413]

Just now, dryslot said:

Ack elbow track.

Most definitely

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, dryslot said:

Ack elbow track.

Since Wednesday. 

 

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

A Pre postmortem: 
93 was a CAT5
60 was a CAT4
1888 who really cares. Find it hard to believe the 6' amounts in the HV.
Been awhile since I scanned the KU book, in fact I broke it out last July sunning trying to cool off...LOL

I think you meant 60" amounts for 1888, and yes those amounts were a little too much.  I think drifting may have affected the measuring back in that storm even with elevation.  But I do believe that the 50" amounts are correct in those couple of areas of CT and Albany.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I would think that with a partial phase being modeled there could be more shifts in track 2 days out than usual.

Owing to the fact that an earlier phase will shift the track and angle of approach significantly. Ditto later.

Furtherest west i see this going is bid pvd psm but favor CHH Bomb

 

[ROOSTA]

There has been consistency between models and run to run agreement on the BM to ACK track. More so than any other in recent memory given the intensity. Big ones tend to do that.  

I miss Messenger (cweat) in events like this. Next gtg we should bus up and go down Rt3 exit 6 to pay homage!

[JC-CT]

8 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Yeah. Gotcha on that one. We got a lousy 17" out of the stupid thing here. But, yeah, I've seen some pretty miserable busts after a lot of hype. Boxing day here was lousy. We were int that damned dry slot for hours while everyone around us got slammed.

 

In ORH?

[ORH_wxman]

2007 as an analog but with mostly snow and not all that sleet mixing in would be a pretty good result.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Let's put it this way. 2007 has repeatedly shown up as a top analog. That would make lots of posters unhappy. Not saying it will happen, but it could.

We aren't getting that much sleet.

[J Paul Gordon]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

In ORH?

Yeah. Thing looked almost like a hand on the radar. ORHe officially got more than a foot but here on the east side we got a lot less. Wind was insane though . Referring to Boxing Day storm. March 07 was pretty much all snow here 

[JC-CT]

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

Yeah. Thing looked almost like a hand on the radar. ORHe officially got more than a foot but here on the east side we got a lot less. Wind was insane though 

You just said 17"

[ORH_wxman]

He was prob confusing it with Feb 2006...we had 17 inches from that system.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Crushed.  Shut em' down. 

 

[geo1]

2 hours ago, Greg said:

A guy from Wilmington, MA.  Very similar to Ray.  Been here for a very long time.  I just went off air for quite some time.

Hey Greg,

George here from Wilmington also. Lurk mostly but welcome aboard.

[J Paul Gordon]

Was referring to Boxing Day 

March 07 was 17". Don't thinkthere was much mixing at all here 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

He was prob confusing it with Feb 2006...we had 17 inches from that system.

I could actually see Feb 2006-like totals but extended north and northwest

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, geo1 said:

Hey Greg,

George here from Wilmington also. Lurk mostly but welcome aboard.

Greg goes back to like 2005 or something actually...I remember from way back on eastern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NESIS rankings:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

[Greg]

Just now, geo1 said:

Hey Greg,

George here from Wilmington also. Lurk mostly but welcome aboard.

Nice to be here. Thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Greg goes back to like 2005 or something actually...I remember from way back on eastern.

Yea...one of the first chats I had there was with you and him.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, geo1 said:

Hey Greg,

George here from Wilmington also. Lurk mostly but welcome aboard.

Wilmington has this secret alliance. It's like the Blind Melon video when the girl bee sees all the other bees playing in the park and doesn't feel like a misfit anymore.

[ORH_wxman]

21z ARW...right up CT River valley...Powderfreak is saving it in the archives.

[geo1]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Greg goes back to like 2005 or something actually...I remember from way back on eastern.

I was lurking then too, actually before that. You guys are the best.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is dragging heels a bit on southern stream through 24...wonder if that is gonna cause it to swing around further right this run.

[Zeus]

1 minute ago, geo1 said:

I was lurking then too, actually before that. You guys are the best.

Have you and I ever, uh, you know... "sparred?"