March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Slide the RGEM like 30 miles east and we're in business 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh...if we see widespread 40-60mph gusts up here I will eat all of my chickens.

Layers or roasters?

RGEM or bust!

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Slide the RGEM like 30 miles east and we're in business 

  That's like 40mm of snow at 10:1.  15" of meh.

[Zeus]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

  That's like 40mm of snow at 10:1.  15" of meh.

RGEM? I don't even know 'em!

[dendrite]

18z Adolf

[Tiktock]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

18z Adolf

Bullseye over my head.  Lock that in.

[TheSnowman]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

18z Adolf

Adolf as in German?  And all these 30-45mm = 10"-15"     Why is that exciting?  Where's the 60-90mm??!!   

[weathafella]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

Adolf as in German?  And all these 30-45mm = 10"-15"     Why is that exciting?  Where's the 60-90mm??!!   

Lol.....

[Hoth]

35 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Alarm? Who's going to sleep Monday night on this board lol.

..map..

Ha, good point. Maybe I'll just half to take a nap tomorrow evening instead. Just loaded up my fridge with assorted brews in preparation.

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Adolf as in German?  And all these 30-45mm = 10"-15"     Why is that exciting?  Where's the 60-90mm??!!   

25.4mm = 10" of snow.  So 50+mm = 20"+ snows.

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Adolf as in German?  And all these 30-45mm = 10"-15"     Why is that exciting?  Where's the 60-90mm??!!   

That 10 to 1. Some areas may be 15 to 1

[Baroclinic Zone]

18z GEFS

 

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Adolf as in German?  And all these 30-45mm = 10"-15"     Why is that exciting?  Where's the 60-90mm??!!   

Those will start showing up at 00z or tomorrow. QPF ticks up into go-time.

[78Blizzard]

You don't have to be very far to the west of any of these modeled solutions to remain snow throughout, as the 0° 850's are wrapped tight and close to the mslp.

[Damage In Tolland]

Who's Greg?

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who's Greg?

A guy from Wilmington, MA.  Very similar to Ray.  Been here for a very long time.  I just went off air for quite some time.

[78Blizzard]

RPM anyone?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Harv on WCVB was showing how it will be slow to accumulate until afternoon, then it goes bonkers with 2-4"/hour rates

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, Greg said:

A guy from Wilmington, MA.  Very similar to Ray.  Been here for a very long time.  I just went off air for quite some time.

Do you yell Kali Ma! All the time, too?

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh...if we see widespread 40-60mph gusts up here I will eat all of my chickens.

Will say this though one of the most impressive gradients both baroclinic and thermal we have had since 13, any heavy convection could up the scale.  

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Do you yell Kali Ma! All the time, too?

Huh, sometimes depending on the mood.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Harv on WCVB was showing how it will be slow to accumulate until afternoon, then it goes bonkers with 2-4"/hour rates

Jan 96 went from hours of virga to a wall. 78 went epic in minutes

[Greg]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jan 96 went from hours of virga to a wall. 78 went epic in minutes

That is very true.  This air won't be as dry to start however.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Harv not as bullish as some other outlets down this way.... hopefully 00z Euro holds

[The 4 Seasons]

14 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

RPM anyone?

Latest RPM looks like its going to take the SLP over CT and bring mixing well inland rain for LI and the coast haha.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Harv not as bullish as some other outlets down this way.... hopefully 00z Euro holds

Yeah, It would suck to get 12" when you could have 18"+

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Latest RPM looks like its going to take the SLP over CT and bring mixing well inland rain for LI and the coast haha.

Haha, indeed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh...if we see widespread 40-60mph gusts up here I will eat all of my chickens.

This.

I expect like 30ph....40 tops.

[CoastalWx]

RPM doing what it normally does with strongly forced systems in combo with a non-hydrostatic model. 

[ariof]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Harv on WCVB was showing how it will be slow to accumulate until afternoon, then it goes bonkers with 2-4"/hour rates

It will be interesting to see what schools/businesses do for closures on Tuesday. A few got burned by closing for the Monday slushfest a few weeks ago when the roads were wet by the morning commute. Luckily I don't see a Dec '07 redux (or even Dec '13, which was sort of a mini-version but way under-modeled) with everyone going to work and then an "oh eff it's really coming down now" and everyone flooding the roads just as the NAM drops 5" of snow in an hour, and then people spend hours on the road to go a couple of miles. 

This one isn't being under-hyped, though. As to whether it's under-modeled, well, some weenies might even be happy if it were.