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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, he's trying to decide if he should pay $600 to come home....UK isn't worth it in n RI.

**** spend the 600 and go to Japan for Ocean Effect multiple feet. Lol at all this I only get 16 while Dendrite gets 22. In the mean time the  winds are sustained twice his.  So silly

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

**** spend the 600 and go to Japan for Ocean Effect multiple feet. Lol at all this I only get 16 while Dendrite gets 22. In the mean time the  winds are sustained twice his.  So silly

Its a great storm, but I wouldn't pay $600 to be in RI with an H7 track near ORH.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are you talking about?

A more phased storm gets tugged nw, which increased dry slot possibility east.

Complete Phase 100 miles south of montauk. Temporary Stall, CCB, and kick it Northeast.

The longwave trough is hauling. There's not a big "bend back" wth this.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Unless you start to see other guidance headed that way, I would not be biting my fingernails.

Agree. It seems like with the energy better sampled now there may be an over reaction on both ends of the extremes on guidance imo. It probably will fall in between. Sounds like a cop out but Ive seen how spazzed out models can get on either end of the spectrum in these complex setups. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Complete Phase 100 miles south of montauk. Temporary Stall, CCB, and kick it Northeast.

The longwave trough is hauling. There's not a big "bend back" wth this.

A track over cc canal is worse for eastern areas than over ACK.

Pretty simple.

 

Steve, I don't understand what is silly about a weather enthusiast hoping for 20" over 12".

Whacking it over a closer ULL that provides flurries is much sillier.

We all have our druthers; give it a rest.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This storm was always set to disappoint after those runs of a few days ago. Nobody will be happy with 12+ now.

And i believe you said this a few days back but you knew that would be the case because the only place to go was down from those biblical runs.

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sankaty

sankaty

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weathafella said:

BD?  What I remember was  that the NAM nailed it from 84 hours in.

The NCEP models showed a huge turnaround on Christmas morning (they had been showing it going OTS), but NOAA released a statement indicating that they were dismissing it due to some model error (can't remember the details).  Then the Euro showed the same thing for it's 12z run, and people started to believe.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You obviously have never been in western New England for any period of time for nor'easters lol.

The no worry zone is the same corridor it's been for days now.  TOL to LEW.  Feet up, light em up.

We worry. That's what we do out here lol. We have had reason to until Mother Nature can prove otherwise. Show me the money. 

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