March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[weatherwiz]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You in West Conn for this one? I know you have to some worries about subsidence but overall, what else you thinking?

I'll be in WeHa...spring break is this week.  

I'm really a bit conflicted on what to say for this storm.  If I had to make a map now I would probably go 8-12" for western and central CT and 10-14" for CT/RI border.  

18z GFS bufkit for Waterbury spit out like .9" QPF with 13:1 ratios which spit out 11" I think.  Dry air (not much RH in SGZ) and subsidence are huge concerns.  Someone will get screwed 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Sadly I'm still being the dad taxi and have not yet started.   Plus DST

This waiting for the 0z is going to suck.  Even if the Euro holds serve I consider that a loss out here

Dooood, you are a lock for a foot +

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I actually forgot about the French model.   Is that at Meteocentre?

Yeah...they're all there. The 12z Adolf only goes out to 78hr so I excluded it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Where is ice72?    I assume  N of Pike will check in Monday morning. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

18z GFS gives Cape Cod especially CHH the site I use for my area about 1.3" of all snow QPF.  NAM is still all rain event, that certainly won't happen.  the models this afternoon have trended towards an earlier transfer of energy between the primary low and the southern stream low (our coastal low over SC).  this will allow a more snowy solution to occur rather than a full phase western outlier track.  We don't need that for a NYC snowfall, we need a benchmark track.  I think the cone for the track should be between the benchmark and ACK, I think a track 25-75mi east of CHH seems to fit this pattern aloft.

[moneypitmike]

I'm on my 5th Diet Coke and just opened a new bag of jelly beans.  No way will I be up beyond the NAM.

Down to 4*.

[Perlstyle]

Would one of the respected Mets please give a state-of-the-state for Eastern MA?  What are we looking at in terms of timing, precip type, and power of the storm?  Is this a potential HECS or just MECS?  Please cut through all the noise and break it down for us!  Ok back to lurking mode for me...tia.  

[Morch Madness]

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

18z GFS gives Cape Cod especially CHH the site I use for my area about 1.3" of all snow QPF.  NAM is still all rain event, that certainly won't happen.  the models this afternoon have trended towards an earlier transfer of energy between the primary low and the southern stream low (our coastal low over SC).  this will allow a more snowy solution to occur rather than a full phase western outlier track.  We don't need that for a NYC snowfall, we need a benchmark track.  I think the cone for the track should be between the benchmark and ACK, I think a track 25-75mi east of CHH seems to fit this pattern aloft.

 

It could very easily track right over your head

[ineedsnow]

Hope all the data is in for 0z and we start to get a similar track on the models.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

At least you offset all that sugar in those jelly beans with that diet coke.............lol

Yup--extremes in opposite direction cancel each other out.  Just like our torch February and our cool March.  Average them and you get your typical winter.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

It could very easily track right over your head

ok, but I think it tracks east of me ok

[moneypitmike]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Hope all the data is in for 0z and we start to get a similar track on the models.

As long as it's a good track.....then we'll hope key ingredients are missing.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

   I assume  N of Pike will check in Monday morning. 

Hola

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

ok, but I think it tracks east of me ok

Why?

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Perlstyle said:

Would one of the respected Mets please give a state-of-the-state for Eastern MA?  What are we looking at in terms of timing, precip type, and power of the storm?  Is this a potential HECS or just MECS?  Please cut through all the noise and break it down for us!  Ok back to lurking mode for me...tia.  

First off it's early so it's not wise to get cute with amounts. Snow will start Tuesday morning probably near commute time. For now, I expect mostly snow NW of the canal. Potential for over a foot where you are in Brighton. Should end Tuesday night and just some light snow or flurries Wednesday. Probably 40-50mph or so wind in the city.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

50 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Well I see we have the 18z GFS joining the eastern shift crowd...It is almost like OKX jinxed this thing by posting this way too early....  

Pretty much. Praying it was just a hiccup or at least the most east possible outcome which is still not bad. Still have time to swing it back a bit. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why?

We know the drill....But the past decade or so he has laughed his way to the bank. Frankly, at this point, I am not betting against the east of CC track anymore. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Dooood, you are a lock for a foot +

Maybe.  If the 0z holds serve I think the 12z will go east.   I need even a small tic W to allay my fears

Sam's Cold Snap now.  I ain't proud

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Biggest Euro run of winter tonite

Hiccup crowd against better sampling is upon us. Should be fun as long as euro goes west.

I'd say 65/35

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We know the drill....But the past decade or so he has laughed his way to the bank. Frankly, at this point, I am not betting against the east of CC track anymore. 

Regardless of what track is shown at 0z I am just as interested in intensity and the degree of phase.  We are certainly in a great place when in mid-March we are going to be more worried about qpf than cold source.  Lots can still happen to monkey wrench this a bit for the coast or the interior. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's the dead zone between models.  This is fairly typical.  Sunday night/Monday they will tighten up.  I'm curious how your area will do

The baby models started well.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe.  If the 0z holds serve I think the 12z will go east.   I need even a small tic W to allay my fears

Sam's Cold Snap now.  I ain't proud

No shame in Sam, still the craft godfather. 

[78Blizzard]

The upcoming NAM should be the first to sample that energy coming onshore out west.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Regardless of what track is shown at 0z I am just as interested in intensity and the degree of phase.  We are certainly in a great place when in mid-March we are going to be more worried about qpf than cold source.  Lots can still happen to monkey wrench this a bit for the coast or the interior. 

I approve of this thinking. 3 deep now, gettin a little sloppy with my thoughts. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The upcoming NAM should be the first to sample that energy coming onshore out west.

Well actually the NAM/CMC/GFS/uncle/Euro etc all sample it at the same time but the first vote is in from NAM.

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There were fights on Eastern and the early days of American re the data shadowing in the NE Pac..

Heavy handed posters with somehow ...some way insider knowledge would snipe people that talked about it, as being bs - it's not true that it matters all that much.

So which is it?

I figure it's worthy seeing as the NCEP and NWS offices routinely discuss the lack of actual physical soundings going into the grids as opposed to satellite derivatives.  Probably just a-hole Mets on the board hiding behind their red-tags -

 

Latest research is showing this NE Pacific data gap is a huge deal. We would get more bang for our buck sampling that area for the wave train than on extra balloons in the east. 

[78Blizzard]

Just now, weathafella said:

Well actually the NAM/CMC/GFS/uncle/Euro etc all sample it st the same time but the first vote is in from NAM.

That's what I meant.

[ORH_wxman]

Record low maxes set at ORH and BDL today. Old record 1960....a month with its own KU pedigree. That airmass is helping set the stage for this storm. 

[weathafella]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

That's what I meant.

I know-was messing with you.

[bobbutts]

Have a feeling this will end up the most over-anticipated 3-6" snowfall I've had in awhile.  GFS well on its way to pulling the football.  Like to see the trend reverse at 0z.